NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTWilliams-Brice Stadium

#11 Tennessee Volunteers at South Carolina Gamecocks

TV · ESPN

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

TENN +2.5

55%

TENN 25.25–25.69 SC

#11Tennessee Volunteers

6-1 · W3 · computer pick

234 PF · 103 PA

25.25

Projected

South Carolina Gamecocks

3-3 · W1

226 PF · 153 PA

25.69

TENN 49%SC 51%

Projected TENN 25.25–25.69 SC

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

TENN -3.8

SC -2.5

Total

51.8

50.5

Gap: -6.3 margin, +1.3 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TENN vs SC

The model

How this number was built

TENN 25.25–25.69 SC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SC +11.6 vs TENN +18.1 · pred margin +0.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.3 vs +10.4 · model SC 25.1–29.9 TENN
Home field
+3.0 pts to SC
Record
SC 3-3 · TENN 6-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward SC -2.5 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Faizon Brandon
Pass 61/101, 697 YDS, 7 TD, 1 INT
DeSean Bishop
Rush 139 CAR, 837 YDS, 10 TD
Mike Matthews
Rec 29 REC, 481 YDS, 3 TD

LaNorris Sellers
Pass 115/187, 1338 YDS, 12 TD, 4 INT
Matt Fuller
Rush 81 CAR, 485 YDS, 5 TD
Nyck Harbor
Rec 17 REC, 278 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TENN	SC
Points Per Game	33.4	37.7
Total Yards	405.1	474.7
Yards Passing	188.0	242.3
Yards Rushing	217.1	232.3
Points Allowed Per Game	14.7	25.5
Yards Allowed	280.4	340.8
Pass Yards Allowed	159.3	237.2
Rush Yards Allowed	121.1	103.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Tennessee vs South Carolina prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TENN +2.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projects Tennessee 25.3, South Carolina 25.7. Model win probability: South Carolina 51%, Tennessee 49%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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