NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTDavis Wade Stadium

Oklahoma Sooners at Mississippi State Bulldogs

TV · SEC Network

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

MSST +3.5

52%

OU 24.81–22.04 MSST

Oklahoma Sooners

3-3 · L1

128 PF · 109 PA

24.81

Projected

Mississippi State Bulldogs

4-2 · L2 · computer pick

195 PF · 171 PA

22.04

OU 57%MSST 43%

Projected OU 24.81–22.04 MSST

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

OU -1.3

OU -3.5

Total

47.6

46.5

Gap: +2.2 margin, +1.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: OU vs MSST

The model

How this number was built

OU 24.81–22.04 MSST · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MSST +9.1 vs OU +13.3 · pred margin -2.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +2.6 vs +5.4 · model MSST 24.4–25.6 OU
Home field
+3.0 pts to MSST
Record
MSST 4-2 · OU 3-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward OU -3.5 / total 46.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

John Mateer
Pass 114/175, 1308 YDS, 9 TD, 7 INT
Lloyd Avant
Rush 60 CAR, 267 YDS, 2 TD
Isaiah Sategna III
Rec 33 REC, 414 YDS, 2 TD

Kamario Taylor
Pass 102/154, 1450 YDS, 17 TD, 4 INT
Fluff Bothwell
Rush 74 CAR, 403 YDS, 3 TD
Anthony Evans III
Rec 47 REC, 614 YDS, 5 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	OU	MSST
Points Per Game	21.3	32.5
Total Yards	311.5	454.3
Yards Passing	219.0	277.8
Yards Rushing	92.5	176.5
Points Allowed Per Game	18.2	28.5
Yards Allowed	260.7	379.5
Pass Yards Allowed	151.3	264.8
Rush Yards Allowed	109.3	114.7

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Oklahoma vs Mississippi St prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is MSST +3.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Oklahoma 24.8, Mississippi St 22.0. Model win probability: Mississippi St 43%, Oklahoma 57%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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