NCAAFSat 6:30 PM CTKroger Field

Vanderbilt Commodores at #12 Kentucky Wildcats

TV · SEC Network

Sat 6:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

UK -10.5

51%

VAN 20.47–31.50 UK

Vanderbilt Commodores

3-4 · L4

165 PF · 208 PA

20.47

Projected

#12Kentucky Wildcats

6-1 · W5 · computer pick

229 PF · 181 PA

31.50

VAN 25%UK 75%

Projected VAN 20.47–31.50 UK

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

UK -12.1

UK -10.5

Total

52.9

51.5

Gap: +1.6 margin, +1.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: VAN vs UK

The model

How this number was built

VAN 20.47–31.50 UK · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
UK +12.7 vs VAN +0.5 · pred margin +11.0
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +4.0 vs +2.8 · model UK 30.6–25.5 VAN
Home field
+3.0 pts to UK
Record
UK 6-1 · VAN 3-4
Market prior
Blended 67% toward UK -10.5 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jared Curtis
Pass 101/161, 1242 YDS, 6 TD, 7 INT
Sedrick Alexander
Rush 61 CAR, 270 YDS, 5 TD
Junior Sherrill
Rec 41 REC, 628 YDS, 4 TD

Kenny Minchey
Pass 141/206, 1552 YDS, 13 TD, 1 INT
CJ Baxter
Rush 87 CAR, 484 YDS, 8 TD
Kenny Darby
Rec 34 REC, 436 YDS, 3 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	VAN	UK
Points Per Game	23.6	32.7
Total Yards	354.3	387.9
Yards Passing	235.1	221.7
Yards Rushing	119.1	166.1
Points Allowed Per Game	29.7	25.9
Yards Allowed	365.6	377.0
Pass Yards Allowed	219.3	249.7
Rush Yards Allowed	146.3	127.3

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is UK -10.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projects Vanderbilt 20.5, Kentucky 31.5. Model win probability: Kentucky 75%, Vanderbilt 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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