NCAAFSat 2:30 PM CTBryant-Denny Stadium

Texas A&M Aggies at #13 Alabama Crimson Tide

TV · ABC

Sat 2:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Spread

TA&M +14.5

52%

TA&M 18.50–32.19 ALA

Texas A&M Aggies

4-3 · W1 · computer pick

206 PF · 120 PA

18.50

Projected

#13Alabama Crimson Tide

5-2 · L2

275 PF · 150 PA

32.19

TA&M 20%ALA 80%

Projected TA&M 18.50–32.19 ALA

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

Spread

ALA -12.0

ALA -14.5

Total

51.1

50.5

Gap: -2.5 margin, +0.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: TA&M vs ALA

The model

How this number was built

TA&M 18.50–32.19 ALA · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
ALA +24.2 vs TA&M +13.5 · pred margin +13.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +11.7 vs +8.4 · model ALA 30.4–22.0 TA&M
Home field
+3.0 pts to ALA
Record
ALA 5-2 · TA&M 4-3
Market prior
Blended 67% toward ALA -14.5 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Marcel Reed
Pass 112/201, 1227 YDS, 7 TD, 6 INT
KJ Edwards
Rush 47 CAR, 317 YDS, 2 TD
Isaiah Horton
Rec 20 REC, 280 YDS, 3 TD

Keelon Russell
Pass 129/191, 1746 YDS, 12 TD, 4 INT
Trae'shawn Brown
Rush 57 CAR, 313 YDS, 5 TD
Ryan Coleman-Williams
Rec 23 REC, 415 YDS, 4 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TA&M	ALA
Points Per Game	29.4	39.3
Total Yards	356.9	416.6
Yards Passing	195.7	252.7
Yards Rushing	161.1	163.9
Points Allowed Per Game	17.1	21.4
Yards Allowed	305.9	337.9
Pass Yards Allowed	164.1	230.9
Rush Yards Allowed	141.7	107.0

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Texas A&M vs Alabama prediction · Oct 24, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is TA&M +14.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projects Texas A&M 18.5, Alabama 32.2. Model win probability: Alabama 80%, Texas A&M 20%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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