The Citadel Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies
Final · SECN+
Model: CIT 6.90–48.89 TA&M
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2468355173
- Winner: Texas A&M (99%)
- Spread: CIT +45.5 covers (69%)
- Total: Under 57.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)16
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CIT vs TA&M
The model
How this number was built
CIT 6.90–48.89 TA&M · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +8.4 vs -3.7 · model TA&M 37.4–15.2 CIT
- Home field+3.0 pts to TA&M
- RecordTA&M 4-3 · CIT 2-5
- Market priorBlended 82% toward TA&M -46.5 / total 56.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TA&M | 7 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 41 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 8:560–7
Jamarion Morrow 4 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
- TDQ2 14:290–14
Jamarion Morrow 1 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
- TDQ2 10:260–21
Aaron Gregory 37 Yd pass from Marcel Reed (David Olano Kick)
- TDQ2 0:300–28
Jamarion Morrow 1 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)
- FGQ3 10:050–31
David Olano 23 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ3 3:220–34
David Olano 20 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 5:470–41
Aaron Gregory 12 Yd pass from Brady Hart (David Olano Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| CIT | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nick Billoups #8 | 2/5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | -- |
 Xavier Hill #12 | 1/4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 | -- |
 Quentin Hayes #7 | 0/1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 3/10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| CIT | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gavin Garcia #5 | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 0 | 9 |
Xavier Hill #12 | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 | 9 |
 Sebastien Boyle #44 | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | 7 |
 Braylon Knauth #4 | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | 11 |
Nick Billoups #8 | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | 13 |
 Abijah Webb #21 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 |
 Israel Benjamin #22 | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 | 4 |
 Olando Kamara #28 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 |
 Michael Lorino #38 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 47 | 140 | 3.0 | 0 | 13 |
Receiving
| CIT | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Isaiah Johnson #81 | 1 | 32 | 32.0 | 0 | 32 |
 Whit Hobgood #89 | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 | 32 |
Defense
| CIT | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zyion Brown #2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nikolas Mirabella #24 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J'hari Mosley #12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joshua Saddler #26 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Khaleb Bridges #20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Beau Shugarts #52 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Savionne Rogers #8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D'Angelo Sheppard #10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew Jackson #46 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tre' McLeod #17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Boyce Bankhead #22 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Temarcus Elam #32 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jalen Wright #34 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Zeb Stroup #18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Maurice Bonneau Jr. #5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 David Alexander #98 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jabraivon Woodard #3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Terrance Wells Jr. #94 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Caleb Davis #29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JJ Fludd #23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chase Anderson #45 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dru Darby #42 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chase Davis #25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nick Porada #54 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Isaiah Richardson #41 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ryland Mitchell #36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Peyton Betts #11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DK McGruder #29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Anthony Turnbow #27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 78 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| CIT | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Braylon Knauth #4 | 3 | 80 | 26.7 | 42 | 0 |
| Team | 3 | 80 | 26.7 | 42 | 0 |
Kicking
| CIT | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Evan Kiely #90 | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0 |
| Team | 0/1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0/0 | 0 |
Punting
| CIT | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jack Weil #1 | 5 | 193 | 38.6 | 0 | 2 | 46 |
| Team | 5 | 193 | 38.6 | 0 | 2 | 46 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CIT | TA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 12 | 26 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-15 | 7-11 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Total Yards | 183 | 501 |
| Passing | 43 | 237 |
| Comp/Att | 3/10 | 16/25 |
| Yards per pass | 4.3 | 9.5 |
| Rushing | 140 | 264 |
| Rushing Attempts | 47 | 40 |
| Yards per rush | 3.0 | 6.6 |
| Penalties | 2-20 | 5-38 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 33:59 | 26:01 |
CIT 6.90–48.89 TA&M
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
The Citadel vs Texas A&M pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CIT +45.5, with a 69% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAF picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day