Incarnate Word Cardinals at UTEP Miners
Final · MW+
60–79Last shot · Ismail Habib makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected UIW 64.54–76.21 UTEP
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2582507660
- Winner: UTEP (73%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UIW 64.54–76.21 UTEP · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUTEP +6.6 off · UIW +2.9 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UTEP
- RecordUTEP 1-1 · UIW 0-3
- Market priorBlended 85% toward UTEP -13.5 / total 142.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UIW | 29 | 31 | 60 |
| UTEP | 46 | 33 | 79 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 9:0453–67
Augusto Cassia makes 9-foot hook shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 8:3253–69
Reid Cason makes 6-foot jumper (Cam McDaniels assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 8:1055–69
Godswill Erheriene makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 7:3555–71
Reid Cason makes layup (Augusto Cassia assists)
- FT2nd Half 6:5955–72
Augusto Cassia makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 6:2756–72
Brandon McCreesh makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:3856–74
Cam McDaniels makes 14-foot pullup jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:1959–74
Brandon McCreesh makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ismail Habib assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:1459–76
Reese Miller makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Leif Moeller assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:5359–77
Augusto Cassia makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0659–79
Augusto Cassia makes 9-foot hook shot
- FT2nd Half 0:0160–79
Ismail Habib makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UIW | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 K. Ioane F · #8 | 13 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
 D. Goodwin F · #0 | 37 | 16 | 6-14 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
 G. Erheriene F · #21 | 27 | 7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Thomas G · #6 | 21 | 6 | 3-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 B. McCreesh G · #24 | 36 | 13 | 4-9 | 2-7 | 3-5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 D. Emetu F · #7 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Pare C · #35 | 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
 DJ Cason G · #10 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 M. Garcia-Plata G · #1 | 16 | 6 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 I. Habib G · #5 | 33 | 10 | 2-9 | 0-5 | 6-7 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 T. Collins F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Spencer F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Harvey G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Conner G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Barbee G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 60 | 21-53 | 7-27 | 11-18 | 32 | 10 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UIW | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 21-53 | 29-57 |
| FG% | 40 | 51 |
| 3PT | 7-27 | 11-29 |
| 3P% | 26 | 38 |
| FT | 11-18 | 10-18 |
| FT% | 61 | 56 |
| REB | 32 | 37 |
| OR | 10 | 10 |
| DR | 22 | 27 |
| AST | 10 | 17 |
| STL | 4 | 11 |
| BLK | 1 | 2 |
| TO | 15 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 17 |
| FBPs | 9 | 16 |
| PIP | 20 | 32 |
| PF | 18 | 18 |
| LL | 0 | 22 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 97 |
At lock UIW 64.54–76.21 UTEP · UTEP by 11.7 pts vs UIW +12.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissK. Ioane · UIW
13 MIN · 0-0 FGY. Traore · UTEP
28 MIN · 12 PTSCam McDaniels · UTEP
STAT · 27 MIN · 27 PTS · 10-18 FG · 4-10 3PTD'Arrae Goodwin · UIW
STAT · 37 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-14 FG · 3-7 3PTBrandon McCreesh · UIW
STAT · 36 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-9 FG · 2-7 3PTReese Miller · UTEP
STAT · 32 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-9 FG · 3-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Incarnate Word vs UTEP pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UIW +12.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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