Omaha Mavericks at Utah State Aggies
Final · YouTube
56–90Last shot · Cory Curtis Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected OMA 64.44–89.12 USU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 1:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 758908428
- Winner: Utah State (99%)
- Spread: OMA +26.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 152.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
OMA 64.44–89.12 USU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUSU +29.4 off · OMA +14.1 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to USU
- RecordUSU 2-0 · OMA 1-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward USU -29.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OMA | 21 | 35 | 56 |
| USU | 44 | 46 | 90 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:2845–85
Brayden Boe makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2845–86
Brayden Boe makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4845–88
AJ Bates makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5848–88
Jonny Jordan Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:5049–88
Cory Curtis Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:5050–88
Cory Curtis Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2652–88
Jonny Jordan Jr. makes 16-foot jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1252–90
Jordan Boyd makes layup (Sean Felts assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:5153–90
Ethan Sheats makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5154–90
Ethan Sheats makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2955–90
Cory Curtis Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2956–90
Cory Curtis Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| OMA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Bolis F · #7 | 19 | 4 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
 I. Ondekane C · #24 | 20 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
 C. Crosby G · #2 | 29 | 9 | 3-14 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 D. Thompson G · #21 | 26 | 13 | 4-12 | 3-8 | 2-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 G. Stubblefield G · #3 | 24 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
G G. Baker F · #42 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
E E. Sheats F · #8 | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
D D. Pleasant F · #5 | 13 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
 B. Scholl F · #44 | 13 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 C. Dockery F · #0 | 8 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 H. Bukinga C · #32 | 10 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
J J. Jordan Jr. G · #11 | 19 | 7 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 C. Curtis Jr. G · #1 | 8 | 8 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 A. Skradis G · #12 | 7 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
B B. Orgilbold G · #13 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 56 | 19-65 | 7-31 | 11-14 | 41 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 26 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OMA | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-65 | 35-60 |
| FG% | 29 | 58 |
| 3PT | 7-31 | 8-21 |
| 3P% | 23 | 38 |
| FT | 11-14 | 12-21 |
| FT% | 79 | 57 |
| REB | 41 | 39 |
| OR | 15 | 7 |
| DR | 26 | 32 |
| AST | 13 | 23 |
| STL | 10 | 8 |
| BLK | 1 | 7 |
| TO | 15 | 11 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 16 |
| FBPs | 4 | 18 |
| PIP | 20 | 52 |
| PF | 19 | 13 |
| LL | 1 | 43 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 1 | 98 |
At lock OMA 64.44–89.12 USU · USU by 24.7 pts vs OMA +26.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Bolis · OMA
19 MIN · 4 PTSW. Hornseth · USU
25 MIN · 7 PTSMason Falslev · USU
STAT · 34 MIN · 22 PTS · 10-17 FG · 1-3 3PTSolomon Callaghan · USU
STAT · 24 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-8 FG · 4-6 3PTDeke Thompson · OMA
STAT · 26 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-12 FG · 3-8 3PTKarson Templin · USU
STAT · 19 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-5 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Omaha vs Utah State pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is OMA +26.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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