Robert Morris Colonials at Arkansas Razorbacks
Final · SECN+
53–76Last shot · KJ Garris Jr. misses layup
At lock: projected RMU 64.98–90.39 ARK
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 3:08 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2118282541
- Winner: Arkansas (99%)
- Spread: RMU +29.5 covers (64%)
- Total: Over 155.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)27
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
RMU 64.98–90.39 ARK · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseARK +11.3 off · RMU -4.9 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ARK
- RecordARK 2-1 · RMU 0-3
- Market priorBlended 84% toward ARK -29.5 / total 155.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RMU | 30 | 23 | 53 |
| ARK | 39 | 37 | 76 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 7:0548–66
Ace Valentine makes layup (Darius Livingston assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 6:4348–68
Cooper Bowser makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Jeremiah Wilkinson assists)
- FT2nd Half 5:2048–69
Davion Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:4148–70
Jordan Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:2350–70
Jalik Dunkley makes 4-foot dunk (Ace Valentine assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0150–72
JJ Andrews makes layup
- FT2nd Half 3:3650–73
JJ Andrews makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3650–74
JJ Andrews makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5951–74
KJ Garris Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5451–76
Jeremiah Wilkinson makes 14-foot jumper (Cooper Bowser assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:2552–76
Eddie Cooke III makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2553–76
Eddie Cooke III makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| RMU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 S. Obenjo F · #13 | 28 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 D. Livingston G · #12 | 32 | 10 | 4-11 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 KJ Garris Jr. G · #22 | 32 | 11 | 3-13 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 E. Cooke III G · #5 | 20 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 A. Valentine G · #1 | 29 | 13 | 5-11 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Dunkley F · #11 | 19 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 KC Ugwuakazi F · #23 | 14 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 W. Occomy G · #4 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Smith G · #3 | 21 | 7 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 B. Oderinlo F · #34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Stolbetskiy F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Donovan G · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Bozhinovski G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Parlow G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Sloane G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 53 | 19-51 | 8-27 | 7-12 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RMU | ARK | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-51 | 31-62 |
| FG% | 37 | 50 |
| 3PT | 8-27 | 5-15 |
| 3P% | 30 | 33 |
| FT | 7-12 | 9-17 |
| FT% | 58 | 53 |
| REB | 21 | 45 |
| OR | 3 | 14 |
| DR | 18 | 31 |
| AST | 11 | 25 |
| STL | 8 | 5 |
| BLK | 2 | 5 |
| TO | 10 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 10 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 7 | 8 |
| FBPs | 8 | 18 |
| PIP | 20 | 44 |
| PF | 18 | 13 |
| LL | 5 | 25 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 29 | 65 |
At lock RMU 64.98–90.39 ARK · ARK by 25.4 pts vs RMU +29.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitS. Obenjo · RMU
28 MIN · 2 PTSM. Muurinen · ARK
19 MIN · 2 PTSBilly Richmond III · ARK
STAT · 30 MIN · 16 PTS · 8-14 FG · 0-1 3PTDavion Thompson · ARK
STAT · 26 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-8 FG · 2-3 3PTAce Valentine · RMU
STAT · 29 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-11 FG · 2-7 3PTCooper Bowser · ARK
STAT · 30 MIN · 12 PTS · 6-8 FG · 0-2 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Robert Morris vs Arkansas pick result · Nov 11, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is RMU +29.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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