New Mexico State Aggies at San Diego State Aztecs
TV · CW
@Model projects NMSU 66.62 – 78.77 SDSU · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.8%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
M. Lavrenov · NMSU
ForwardG. Pickens · NMSU
GuardL. Davis · SDSU
GuardT. Simmons · SDSU
ForwardE. Harrington · SDSU
Guard
Projected prop · Latrell Davis (SDSU) 20.36 pts · 23.00 pts/game this season, × 0.89 for the projected SDSU score
At lock: projected NMSU 66.62–78.77 SDSU
The model
How this number was built
NMSU 66.62–78.77 SDSU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSDSU +5.9 off · NMSU -2.0 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SDSU
- RecordSDSU 3-0 · NMSU 1-2
- Market priorBlended 69% toward SDSU -12.5 / total 143.5
Season leaders
Mark LavrenovPTS 16.7- Mark LavrenovREB 7.3
Gabe PickensAST 4.7
Latrell DavisPTS 23.0
Tae SimmonsREB 7.0
Elzie HarringtonAST 4.7
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NMSU | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| STRK | L2 | W3 |
| OPP PPG | 78.3 | 73.0 |
| PTS | 66.3 | 89.0 |
| FG% | 42 | 55 |
| 3P% | 34 | 43 |
| REB | 33.3 | 39.3 |
| AST | 10.3 | 17.7 |
| BLK | 2.0 | 4.7 |
| STL | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| TTO | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| ToTO | 16.7 | 17.0 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
New Mexico St vs San Diego St prediction · Nov 15, 2026
The model projects New Mexico St 66.6, San Diego St 78.8. Model win probability: San Diego St 85%, New Mexico St 15%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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