Oakland Golden Grizzlies at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
Final · ESPN+
67–90Last shot · Camden Thompson misses layup
At lock: projected OAK 68.87–81.16 UCSB
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 1:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2112935473
- Winner: Santa Barbara (86%)
- Spread: OAK +12.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Under 150.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)11
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
OAK 68.87–81.16 UCSB · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUCSB +10.4 off · OAK +20.4 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UCSB
- RecordUCSB 2-0 · OAK 0-3
- Market priorBlended 85% toward UCSB -13.5 / total 149.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 27 | 40 | 67 |
| UCSB | 38 | 52 | 90 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:1757–83
Antonio Chol makes 24-foot three point jumper (Viljami Vartiainen assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:1657–84
CJ Shaw makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1657–85
CJ Shaw makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1660–85
RJ Taylor makes 26-foot three point jumper (Camden Thompson assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:2960–86
Antonio Chol makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0962–86
Isaiah Theodile makes layup (Camden Thompson assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:4662–88
Marco John Wuol makes 0-foot tip in layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:2664–88
Isaiah Theodile makes 7-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:0964–89
Jordan Charles makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0964–90
Jordan Charles makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5566–90
Camden Thompson makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:5567–90
Camden Thompson makes free throw 1 of 1
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| OAK | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Fields Jr. F · #2 | 30 | 13 | 5-8 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
 B. El Shakery F · #24 | 11 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 W. Kassi G · #4 | 10 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 W. Marshall IV G · #13 | 17 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 N. Mashhour G · #0 | 31 | 19 | 5-14 | 4-9 | 5-6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 N. Ahner F · #22 | 8 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 I. Theodile F · #21 | 6 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 C. Thompson F · #6 | 12 | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 D. Hamilton G · #11 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Bradley G · #3 | 15 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 B. Swartz G · #5 | 14 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 H. Mashhour G · #1 | 17 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 RJ Taylor G · #10 | 22 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Hill F · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Stojanovski G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 67 | 23-49 | 10-22 | 11-16 | 25 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OAK | UCSB | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-49 | 30-58 |
| FG% | 47 | 52 |
| 3PT | 10-22 | 18-29 |
| 3P% | 45 | 62 |
| FT | 11-16 | 12-18 |
| FT% | 69 | 67 |
| REB | 25 | 35 |
| OR | 3 | 9 |
| DR | 22 | 26 |
| AST | 16 | 25 |
| STL | 4 | 4 |
| BLK | 0 | 4 |
| TO | 11 | 6 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 6 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 5 | 12 |
| FBPs | 5 | 16 |
| PIP | 22 | 22 |
| PF | 19 | 18 |
| LL | 4 | 28 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 17 | 78 |
At lock OAK 68.87–81.16 UCSB · UCSB by 12.3 pts vs OAK +12.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
MissC. Fields Jr. · OAK
30 MIN · 13 PTSE. Dibami · UCSB
23 MIN · 9 PTSViljami Vartiainen · UCSB
STAT · 18 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-12 FG · 5-9 3PTNassim Mashhour · OAK
STAT · 31 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-14 FG · 4-9 3PTAidan Mahaney · UCSB
STAT · 28 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-9 FG · 4-5 3PTCJ Shaw · UCSB
STAT · 28 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-8 FG · 2-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Oakland vs Santa Barbara pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is OAK +12.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day