Southern Jaguars at Drake Bulldogs
Final · ESPN+
68–75Last shot · Malik Ferguson misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected SOU 68.84–83.08 DRKE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1287834841
- Winner: Drake (92%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SOU 68.84–83.08 DRKE · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseDRKE +12.8 off · SOU +8.0 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to DRKE
- RecordDRKE 2-0 · SOU 0-3
- Market priorBlended 85% toward DRKE -13.5 / total 151.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOU | 27 | 41 | 68 |
| DRKE | 33 | 42 | 75 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:0358–71
Malik Ferguson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:0359–71
Malik Ferguson makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3760–71
R'Chaun King makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3761–71
R'Chaun King makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4361–72
Jon Carroll makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4361–73
Jon Carroll makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3064–73
Daniel Dormu makes 27-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:5665–73
Malik Ferguson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5666–73
Malik Ferguson makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4767–73
Malik Ferguson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4768–73
Malik Ferguson makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3268–75
Andrew Alia makes layup (Justin Burns assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SOU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Hall F · #4 | 17 | 6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 L. Bell C · #10 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Benjamin G · #9 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 J. Page G · #5 | 18 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Amboree G · #0 | 17 | 7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 R. King F · #23 | 28 | 8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
 I. Olajuwon C · #35 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 N. Boyde C · #24 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Hunter G · #13 | 23 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 J. Greer G · #8 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Parish G · #2 | 15 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
 D. Dormu G · #3 | 25 | 15 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 L. Larvadain G · #11 | 19 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 S. Van Dorn Jr. G · #7 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 M. Ferguson G · #1 | 22 | 17 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 10-11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 K. Demory G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 68 | 22-45 | 6-14 | 18-24 | 29 | 9 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SOU | DRKE | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-45 | 24-52 |
| FG% | 49 | 46 |
| 3PT | 6-14 | 8-25 |
| 3P% | 43 | 32 |
| FT | 18-24 | 19-31 |
| FT% | 75 | 61 |
| REB | 29 | 31 |
| OR | 7 | 11 |
| DR | 22 | 20 |
| AST | 9 | 15 |
| STL | 10 | 9 |
| BLK | 3 | 4 |
| TO | 21 | 16 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 21 | 16 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 11 |
| FBPs | 19 | 8 |
| PIP | 24 | 30 |
| PF | 23 | 22 |
| LL | 4 | 14 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 16 | 83 |
At lock SOU 68.84–83.08 DRKE · DRKE by 14.2 pts vs DRKE -13.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissA. Hall · SOU
17 MIN · 6 PTSJ. Burns · DRKE
32 MIN · 7 PTSJon Carroll · DRKE
STAT · 34 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-12 FG · 0-1 3PTMalik Ferguson · SOU
STAT · 22 MIN · 17 PTS · 3-6 FG · 1-3 3PTDre Kindell · DRKE
STAT · 32 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-8 FG · 2-4 3PTDaniel Dormu · SOU
STAT · 25 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-9 FG · 3-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Southern vs Drake pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is DRKE -13.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day