Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions at USC Trojans
TV · B1G+
@At lock UAPB 60.32–98.09 USC · USC by 37.8 pts vs UAPB +44.5 · 62% is the confidence saved at lock
M. Rich · UAPB
ForwardJ. Tatum · UAPB
GuardA. Arenas · USC
GuardJ. Cofie · USC
ForwardR. Rice · USC
Guard
Projected prop · Alijah Arenas (USC) 26.50 pts · 23.33 pts/game this season, × 1.14 for the projected USC score
At lock: projected UAPB 60.32–98.09 USC
The model
How this number was built
UAPB 60.32–98.09 USC · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUSC +5.8 off · UAPB -8.0 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to USC
- RecordUSC 3-0 · UAPB 0-4
- Market priorBlended 83% toward USC -44.5 / total 158.5
Season leaders
Macaleab RichPTS 15.3- Macaleab RichREB 6.0
Jalen TatumAST 2.0
Alijah ArenasPTS 23.3
Jacob CofieREB 7.0
Rodney RiceAST 7.0
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UAPB | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| STRK | L4 | W3 |
| OPP PPG | 98.8 | 71.3 |
| PTS | 52.8 | 88.3 |
| FG% | 36 | 47 |
| 3P% | 20 | 35 |
| REB | 29.0 | 41.3 |
| AST | 7.8 | 18.3 |
| BLK | 2.3 | 7.3 |
| STL | 6.0 | 7.7 |
| TTO | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| ToTO | 26.5 | 12.0 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
AR-Pine Bluff vs USC prediction · Nov 15, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UAPB +44.5, with a 62% model probability. The model projected AR-Pine Bluff 60.3, USC 98.1 when the pick locked. Model win probability: USC 100%, AR-Pine Bluff 0%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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