Denver Pioneers at UC Riverside Highlanders
Final · ESPN+
60–64Last shot · Shaun Wysocki makes 6-foot jumper
At lock: projected DEN 76.36–80.19 UCR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:42 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1558614888
- Winner: UC Riverside (63%)
- Spread: UCR -2.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 156.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)34
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
DEN 76.36–80.19 UCR · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUCR +22.5 off · DEN +4.9 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UCR
- RecordUCR 2-0 · DEN 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward UCR -2.5 / total 156.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 29 | 31 | 60 |
| UCR | 22 | 42 | 64 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0350–55
Tyus Parrish-Tillman makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aidan Rice assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:4852–55
Carson Johnson makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2352–58
Tyus Parrish-Tillman makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Evans Jr. assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:5654–58
Shaun Wysocki makes 0-foot tip in layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5954–61
Easton Reagan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyus Parrish-Tillman assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3355–61
Shaun Wysocki makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3356–61
Shaun Wysocki makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3156–62
Tony Duckett makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1658–62
CJ Hyland makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:1558–63
Aidan Rice makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1558–64
Aidan Rice makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0160–64
Shaun Wysocki makes 6-foot jumper
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| DEN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 O. Wickström Stümer F · #8 | 32 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 |
 C. Dimmock F · #0 | 16 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
 S. Wysocki F · #1 | 35 | 13 | 5-9 | 0-3 | 3-6 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
 C. Johnson G · #20 | 38 | 11 | 5-14 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 K. Martin G · #2 | 18 | 14 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
 H. Bates F · #4 | 19 | 6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
 J. Rogers F · #3 | 10 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 S. Mahoney F · #12 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 CJ Hyland G · #11 | 10 | 7 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 L. Threatt G · #10 | 20 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 B. Mbengue C · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Kirsch G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Cady G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Nelson G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 60 | 24-58 | 4-20 | 8-13 | 45 | 9 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DEN | UCR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-58 | 22-65 |
| FG% | 41 | 34 |
| 3PT | 4-20 | 8-25 |
| 3P% | 20 | 32 |
| FT | 8-13 | 12-19 |
| FT% | 62 | 63 |
| REB | 45 | 37 |
| OR | 10 | 10 |
| DR | 35 | 27 |
| AST | 9 | 15 |
| STL | 4 | 8 |
| BLK | 2 | 8 |
| TO | 16 | 7 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 16 | 7 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 18 |
| FBPs | 4 | 5 |
| PIP | 30 | 24 |
| PF | 20 | 17 |
| LL | 9 | 7 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 77 | 15 |
At lock DEN 76.36–80.19 UCR · UCR by 3.8 pts vs UCR -2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitO. Wickström Stümer · DEN
32 MIN · 2 PTST. Parrish-Tillman · UCR
36 MIN · 30 PTSKam Martin · DEN
STAT · 18 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-8 FG · 2-4 3PTShaun Wysocki · DEN
STAT · 35 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-9 FG · 0-3 3PTCarson Johnson · DEN
STAT · 38 MIN · 11 PTS · 5-14 FG · 1-5 3PTDevon Malcolm · UCR
STAT · 23 MIN · 9 PTS · 3-9 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Denver vs UC Riverside pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UCR -2.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day