VMI Keydets at UTSA Roadrunners
Final · ESPN+
68–70Last shot · Preston Turner misses free throw 1 of 1
At lock: projected VMI 81.64–84.92 UTSA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 1:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1324022412
- Winner: UTSA (62%)
- Spread: VMI +4.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 163.5 (68%)
- Score error (both teams)29
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
VMI 81.64–84.92 UTSA · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUTSA +9.2 off · VMI +17.7 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UTSA
- RecordUTSA 1-1 · VMI 1-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward UTSA -5.5 / total 163.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VMI | 35 | 33 | 68 |
| UTSA | 31 | 39 | 70 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:4858–59
Demari Williams makes 5-foot jumper (Josiah LeGree assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:4858–60
Demari Williams makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2nd Half 4:2259–60
Rickey Bradley Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:1459–61
KJ Tenner makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:1459–62
KJ Tenner makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:5761–62
Rickey Bradley Jr. makes 5-foot turnaround jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4264–62
TJ Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alexander Daushvili assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:4866–62
Rickey Bradley Jr. makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3266–64
Mike Broxton Jr. makes layup (Demari Williams assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5866–67
Demari Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josiah LeGree assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0866–70
Preston Turner makes 24-foot three point jumper (Demari Williams assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:0168–70
Alexander Daushvili makes 0-foot tip in layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| VMI | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P. Narvilas F · #11 | 24 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 A. Daushvili F · #9 | 31 | 7 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
 TJ Johnson F · #44 | 32 | 17 | 5-14 | 3-11 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
 Tr. Johnson G · #23 | 27 | 9 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 R. Bradley Jr. G · #1 | 33 | 16 | 6-11 | 0-2 | 4-7 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
 Z. Vaamonde F · #15 | 11 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Panzo F · #12 | 15 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
 C. Liston F · #0 | 8 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 R. Zilys G · #22 | 19 | 11 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 D. Exarchopoulos F · #72 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Peters F · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Jucevicius G · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Henderson-Bradley G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Lawson G · #42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Edmonds III G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Andrews G · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 AJ Clark G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 68 | 22-56 | 6-24 | 18-26 | 47 | 9 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 17 | 30 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| VMI | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-56 | 28-67 |
| FG% | 39 | 42 |
| 3PT | 6-24 | 7-30 |
| 3P% | 25 | 23 |
| FT | 18-26 | 7-12 |
| FT% | 69 | 58 |
| REB | 47 | 30 |
| OR | 17 | 12 |
| DR | 30 | 18 |
| AST | 9 | 11 |
| STL | 7 | 8 |
| BLK | 0 | 5 |
| TO | 18 | 9 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 18 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 18 |
| FBPs | 4 | 2 |
| PIP | 30 | 38 |
| PF | 16 | 20 |
| LL | 7 | 4 |
| LC | 11 | 11 |
| LPCT | 64 | 26 |
At lock VMI 81.64–84.92 UTSA · UTSA by 3.3 pts vs VMI +4.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitP. Narvilas · VMI
24 MIN · 4 PTSC. Okpukpara · UTSA
10 MIN · 0-1 FGTJ Johnson · VMI
STAT · 32 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-14 FG · 3-11 3PTRickey Bradley Jr. · VMI
STAT · 33 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-11 FG · 0-2 3PTKJ Tenner · UTSA
STAT · 35 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-8 FG · 1-3 3PTJosiah LeGree · UTSA
STAT · 26 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-15 FG · 2-8 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
VMI vs UTSA pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is VMI +4.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day