Northern Iowa Panthers at Furman Paladins
Final · ESPN+
83–98Last shot · Carson Vis misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected UNI 73.57–78.87 FUR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 1:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 914703513
- Winner: Furman (68%)
- Spread: FUR -4.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 149.5 (68%)
- Score error (both teams)28
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UNI 73.57–78.87 FUR · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseFUR +20.8 off · UNI +30.6 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to FUR
- RecordFUR 3-0 · UNI 1-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward FUR -5.5 / total 149.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNI | 31 | 52 | 83 |
| FUR | 44 | 54 | 98 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:1077–90
Isaiah Johnson-Arigu makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3779–90
Greyson Uelmen makes 8-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 2:1579–91
Abijah Franklin makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3679–93
Tom House makes 4-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:3679–94
Tom House makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT2nd Half 1:2980–94
Greyson Uelmen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2981–94
Greyson Uelmen makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2281–95
Collin O'Neal makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2281–96
Collin O'Neal makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1583–96
Greyson Uelmen makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:0783–97
Luka Toews makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4983–98
Collin O'Neal makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UNI | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 I. Johnson-Arigu F · #31 | 23 | 20 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 7-7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
 I. Smikle F · #35 | 17 | 4 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
 G. Hutchins G · #2 | 17 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 G. Uelmen G · #1 | 32 | 15 | 6-16 | 0-4 | 3-5 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 |
 T. McCubbin G · #3 | 32 | 11 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 W. Gerdes F · #32 | 9 | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Isebaert F · #7 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 K. Pock F · #22 | 9 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Kimbrough G · #5 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 L. Valdo G · #9 | 17 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
 C. Vis G · #8 | 30 | 17 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 R. Born G · #0 | 9 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 J. Wilson F · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Courbat G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 83 | 29-69 | 9-29 | 16-19 | 36 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 27 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNI | FUR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 29-69 | 26-54 |
| FG% | 42 | 48 |
| 3PT | 9-29 | 15-33 |
| 3P% | 31 | 45 |
| FT | 16-19 | 31-44 |
| FT% | 84 | 70 |
| REB | 36 | 41 |
| OR | 11 | 10 |
| DR | 25 | 31 |
| AST | 11 | 18 |
| STL | 5 | 6 |
| BLK | 2 | 3 |
| TO | 9 | 9 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 9 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 13 |
| FBPs | 10 | 17 |
| PIP | 38 | 20 |
| PF | 27 | 20 |
| LL | 3 | 21 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 6 | 91 |
At lock UNI 73.57–78.87 FUR · FUR by 5.3 pts vs FUR -4.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitI. Johnson-Arigu · UNI
23 MIN · 20 PTSC. Johnston · FUR
26 MIN · 10 PTSTom House · FUR
STAT · 32 MIN · 30 PTS · 9-14 FG · 7-11 3PTAbijah Franklin · FUR
STAT · 28 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-12 FG · 1-3 3PTCarson Vis · UNI
STAT · 30 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-12 FG · 3-7 3PTGreyson Uelmen · UNI
STAT · 32 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-16 FG · 0-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Northern Iowa vs Furman pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is FUR -4.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day