Utah Tech Trailblazers at Utah State Aggies
Final · YouTube
86–118Last shot · Kyle Lemke makes layup (Petros Ragkos assists)
At lock: projected UTU 67.44–89.48 USU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 2:19 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 95961837
- Winner: Utah State (98%)
- Spread: UTU +25.5 covers (59%)
- Total: Over 156.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)47
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UTU 67.44–89.48 USU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUSU +17.0 off · UTU +9.2 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to USU
- RecordUSU 3-0 · UTU 1-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward USU -25.5 / total 156.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTU | 35 | 51 | 86 |
| USU | 53 | 65 | 118 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3970–114
Dallin Hall makes 25-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2473–114
Ethan Potter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mark Brown Jr. assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:5074–114
Aris Rodriguez makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:5075–114
Aris Rodriguez makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3575–115
Sean Felts makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3575–116
Sean Felts makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1877–116
Mark Brown Jr. makes 20-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 1:4678–116
Aris Rodriguez makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1581–116
Jax Clark makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Bliss assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3884–116
Aris Rodriguez makes 26-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2684–118
Sean Felts makes 8-foot jumper (Ace Reiser assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1486–118
Kyle Lemke makes layup (Petros Ragkos assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UTU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 E. Potter F · #35 | 25 | 19 | 9-12 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 |
 M. Brown Jr. G · #1 | 34 | 14 | 5-11 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 P. Vandermyde G · #14 | 21 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 C. Gibson G · #2 | 26 | 17 | 7-11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 A. Bliss NA · #17 | 16 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Clark F · #7 | 2 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 D. Grant F · #5 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 S. Ariyibi F · #23 | 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 K. Lemke C · #12 | 5 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 O. Mackay G · #24 | 28 | 8 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 A. Rodriguez G · #4 | 27 | 19 | 6-14 | 2-6 | 5-7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 P. Ragkos G · #0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 B. Harker G · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Dupre G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Sunderland G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 86 | 34-69 | 8-27 | 10-12 | 37 | 17 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UTU | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 34-69 | 42-86 |
| FG% | 49 | 49 |
| 3PT | 8-27 | 14-33 |
| 3P% | 30 | 42 |
| FT | 10-12 | 20-23 |
| FT% | 83 | 87 |
| REB | 37 | 44 |
| OR | 9 | 17 |
| DR | 28 | 27 |
| AST | 17 | 22 |
| STL | 1 | 7 |
| BLK | 4 | 1 |
| TO | 13 | 2 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 2 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 3 | 20 |
| FBPs | 3 | 19 |
| PIP | 38 | 54 |
| PF | 22 | 15 |
| LL | 2 | 44 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 4 | 94 |
At lock UTU 67.44–89.48 USU · USU by 22.0 pts vs UTU +25.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissE. Potter · UTU
25 MIN · 19 PTSW. Hornseth · USU
26 MIN · 10 PTSDallin Hall · USU
STAT · 31 MIN · 35 PTS · 12-16 FG · 7-9 3PTMason Falslev · USU
STAT · 33 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-19 FG · 0-4 3PTAris Rodriguez · UTU
STAT · 27 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-14 FG · 2-6 3PTSolomon Callaghan · USU
STAT · 30 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-10 FG · 6-9 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Utah Tech vs Utah State pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UTU +25.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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