Georgia State Panthers at Charlotte 49ers
Final · ESPN+
67–77Last shot · Jacob Meyer misses layup
At lock: projected GAST 68.09–78.41 CLT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2355644348
- Winner: Charlotte (82%)
- Spread: GAST +11.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 146.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
GAST 68.09–78.41 CLT · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCLT +14.8 off · GAST +22.1 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CLT
- RecordCLT 2-0 · GAST 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward CLT -11.5 / total 143.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GAST | 33 | 34 | 67 |
| CLT | 35 | 42 | 77 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:5562–61
David Thomas makes driving layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 5:4162–63
Dylan Grant makes 3-foot dunk
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:5364–63
David Thomas makes 14-foot turnaround jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:3764–66
Frank Oguche makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finister assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:2165–66
David Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4067–66
Jacolb Fredson-Cole makes 13-foot turnaround jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1867–69
Keyshuan Tillery makes 26-foot three point jumper (Frank Oguche assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:0367–70
Miguel Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0367–71
Miguel Allen makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:1667–73
Miguel Allen makes 2-foot dunk (Keyshuan Tillery assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3767–75
Keyshuan Tillery makes driving layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1467–77
Keyshuan Tillery makes layup (Dylan Grant assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| GAST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Fredson-Cole F · #10 | 38 | 21 | 9-13 | 3-4 | 0-2 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
 C. Jones G · #0 | 26 | 13 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 6-7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Jackson G · #14 | 40 | 9 | 3-10 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
 J. Meyer G · #4 | 40 | 11 | 3-15 | 1-3 | 4-7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 D. Thomas G · #12 | 38 | 13 | 5-12 | 0-4 | 3-5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
 J. Sirtautas F · #11 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Nicholson C · #50 | 17 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
 O. Wilson F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Dixon Jr. F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Jackson F · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Fisher G · #32 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Augunas G · #2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Parnell G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Wilburn G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 AJ Smith G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 67 | 23-54 | 8-21 | 13-23 | 34 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GAST | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-54 | 28-57 |
| FG% | 43 | 49 |
| 3PT | 8-21 | 6-18 |
| 3P% | 38 | 33 |
| FT | 13-23 | 15-21 |
| FT% | 57 | 71 |
| REB | 34 | 35 |
| OR | 11 | 10 |
| DR | 23 | 25 |
| AST | 7 | 13 |
| STL | 4 | 9 |
| BLK | 4 | 3 |
| TO | 13 | 10 |
| TTO | 1 | 3 |
| ToTO | 13 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 8 | 14 |
| FBPs | 3 | 13 |
| PIP | 22 | 40 |
| PF | 18 | 17 |
| LL | 10 | 10 |
| LC | 18 | 18 |
| LPCT | 66 | 26 |
At lock GAST 68.09–78.41 CLT · CLT by 10.3 pts vs GAST +11.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJ. Fredson-Cole · GAST
38 MIN · 21 PTSD. Grant · CLT
18 MIN · 7 PTSKeyshuan Tillery · CLT
STAT · 34 MIN · 24 PTS · 8-17 FG · 2-6 3PTChris Jones · GAST
STAT · 26 MIN · 13 PTS · 3-3 FG · 1-1 3PTDavid Thomas · GAST
STAT · 38 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-12 FG · 0-4 3PTMiguel Allen · CLT
STAT · 20 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-5 FG · 3-3 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Georgia St vs Charlotte pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is GAST +11.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day