Charlotte 49ers at Indiana State Sycamores
Final · ESPN+
78–70Last shot · Karmani Gregory misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected CLT 77.38–73.98 INST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2372421967
- Winner: Charlotte (61%)
- Spread: INST +4.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 152.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)4
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CLT 77.38–73.98 INST · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseINST +0.0 off · CLT +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to INST
- Market priorBlended 86% toward CLT -5.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLT | 27 | 51 | 78 |
| INST | 30 | 40 | 70 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:3869–62
Keyshuan Tillery makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2769–64
Karmani Gregory makes layup
- FT2nd Half 3:2769–65
Karmani Gregory makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1172–65
Keyshuan Tillery makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3472–67
Duce Paschal makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0375–67
Dorian Finister makes 29-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:4675–68
Karmani Gregory makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4675–69
Karmani Gregory makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3676–69
Frank Oguche makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3677–69
Frank Oguche makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0778–69
Tyler McKinley makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0178–70
Karmani Gregory makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CLT | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Grant F · #9 | 16 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 M. Walz C · #3 | 17 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 J. Rodriguez-Stegemeijer G · #7 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 K. Tillery G · #11 | 32 | 29 | 9-15 | 7-10 | 4-4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 D. Finister G · #1 | 28 | 11 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
 M. Allen F · #21 | 9 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Fort F · #0 | 14 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
 A. Conyers F · #12 | 11 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 T. McKinley F · #24 | 16 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
 P. Marshall C · #6 | 7 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 F. Oguche G · #8 | 21 | 9 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 C. Harris G · #2 | 16 | 3 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 L. Barnes G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Evans G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 78 | 26-52 | 12-25 | 14-19 | 40 | 10 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 28 | 15 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CLT | INST | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-52 | 27-61 |
| FG% | 50 | 44 |
| 3PT | 12-25 | 6-20 |
| 3P% | 48 | 30 |
| FT | 14-19 | 10-12 |
| FT% | 74 | 83 |
| REB | 40 | 25 |
| OR | 12 | 8 |
| DR | 28 | 17 |
| AST | 10 | 15 |
| STL | 3 | 9 |
| BLK | 5 | 4 |
| TO | 16 | 7 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 16 | 7 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 7 | 17 |
| FBPs | 4 | 5 |
| PIP | 26 | 36 |
| PF | 15 | 15 |
| LL | 9 | 6 |
| LC | 8 | 8 |
| LPCT | 71 | 20 |
At lock CLT 77.38–73.98 INST · CLT by 3.4 pts vs INST +4.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissD. Grant · CLT
16 MIN · 5 PTSA. Calamita · INST
23 MIN · 2 PTSKeyshuan Tillery · CLT
STAT · 32 MIN · 29 PTS · 9-15 FG · 7-10 3PTKarmani Gregory · INST
STAT · 35 MIN · 29 PTS · 11-22 FG · 2-6 3PTMaguire Mitchell · INST
STAT · 36 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-11 FG · 3-6 3PTDorian Finister · CLT
STAT · 28 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-7 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Charlotte vs Indiana St pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is INST +4.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day