Mercer Bears at Davidson Wildcats
Final · ESPN+
76–88Last shot · Derek Goodman misses 28-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected MER 69.00–79.44 DAV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:42 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3962884046
- Winner: Davidson (82%)
- Spread: MER +11.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 148.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)15
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MER 69.00–79.44 DAV · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseDAV +14.3 off · MER +17.1 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to DAV
- RecordDAV 2-0 · MER 1-2
- Market priorBlended 71% toward DAV -11.5 / total 148.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MER | 33 | 43 | 76 |
| DAV | 34 | 54 | 88 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:4065–75
Josh Scovens makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:2568–75
Quinton Perkins II makes 27-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:0768–77
Ian Platteeuw makes 5-foot hook shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:5470–77
Quinton Perkins II makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 4:4070–78
Josh Scovens makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1670–80
Nick Janowski makes 17-foot jumper (Ian Platteeuw assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5370–82
Josh Scovens makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3270–84
Nick Janowski makes 18-foot step back jumpshot
- FT2nd Half 2:1470–85
Ian Platteeuw makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0173–85
Quinton Perkins II makes 26-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0573–88
Sam Brown makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nick Janowski assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4776–88
Derek Goodman makes 32-foot three point jumper (Quinton Perkins II assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MER | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Mabor Makoi F · #35 | 32 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
 D. Goodman G · #23 | 36 | 15 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
 KJ Lamonte G · #1 | 22 | 4 | 2-12 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 B. Shoulders G · #11 | 38 | 4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
 Q. Perkins II G · #3 | 28 | 29 | 9-17 | 5-10 | 6-6 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 K. Boyd F · #18 | 28 | 13 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
 P. Padegimas F · #12 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 S. Cherry G · #2 | 9 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Kovacevic F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Mayhugh F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Steele F · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Jackson G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Lyttle G · #16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Barr G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Cate G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Koveos G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 76 | 27-62 | 10-25 | 12-15 | 35 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 14 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MER | DAV | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-62 | 36-70 |
| FG% | 44 | 51 |
| 3PT | 10-25 | 8-22 |
| 3P% | 40 | 36 |
| FT | 12-15 | 8-11 |
| FT% | 80 | 73 |
| REB | 35 | 39 |
| OR | 12 | 14 |
| DR | 23 | 25 |
| AST | 11 | 13 |
| STL | 4 | 4 |
| BLK | 3 | 3 |
| TO | 9 | 5 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 9 | 5 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 0 | 15 |
| FBPs | 0 | 4 |
| PIP | 26 | 44 |
| PF | 14 | 8 |
| LL | 7 | 15 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 31 | 62 |
At lock MER 69.00–79.44 DAV · DAV by 10.4 pts vs MER +11.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Mabor Makoi · MER
32 MIN · 6 PTSJ. Scovens · DAV
36 MIN · 16 PTSQuinton Perkins II · MER
STAT · 28 MIN · 29 PTS · 9-17 FG · 5-10 3PTNick Janowski · DAV
STAT · 33 MIN · 25 PTS · 11-16 FG · 1-3 3PTSam Brown · DAV
STAT · 26 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-13 FG · 3-5 3PTDerek Goodman · MER
STAT · 36 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-12 FG · 3-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mercer vs Davidson pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MER +11.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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