Northern Iowa Panthers at Michigan State Spartans
Final · FS1
72–106Last shot · Jules Isebaert misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected UNI 65.41–90.61 MSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4080621569
- Winner: Michigan St (99%)
- Spread: UNI +29.5 covers (64%)
- Total: Over 155.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)22
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UNI 65.41–90.61 MSU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMSU +5.8 off · UNI +13.0 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MSU
- RecordMSU 4-0 · UNI 2-2
- Market priorBlended 83% toward MSU -27.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNI | 44 | 28 | 72 |
| MSU | 59 | 47 | 106 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:1663–97
Jasiah Jervis makes free throw 1 of 1
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:5763–99
Carlos Medlock Jr. makes 3-foot dunk
- FT2nd Half 4:4764–99
Will Gerdes makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:2364–100
Coen Carr makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4464–101
Cam Ward makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3167–101
Jaydon Kimbrough makes 27-foot three point jumper (Will Gerdes assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:4868–101
Redek Born makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:0670–101
Jalen Wilson makes layup (Jaydon Kimbrough assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5170–104
Julius Avent makes 25-foot three point jumper (Matthew Watkins assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3872–104
Jaydon Kimbrough makes 16-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:1872–105
Colin Walton makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1872–106
Colin Walton makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UNI | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 I. Johnson-Arigu F · #31 | 21 | 7 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
 I. Smikle F · #35 | 8 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
 C. Vis G · #8 | 27 | 7 | 3-11 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
 G. Uelmen G · #1 | 20 | 16 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
 T. McCubbin G · #3 | 24 | 11 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 W. Gerdes F · #32 | 10 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 J. Isebaert F · #7 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 K. Pock F · #22 | 11 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Wilson F · #24 | 21 | 11 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 J. Kimbrough G · #5 | 4 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 L. Valdo G · #9 | 21 | 11 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
 G. Hutchins G · #2 | 17 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 C. Courbat G · #15 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 R. Born G · #0 | 8 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 72 | 25-59 | 7-20 | 15-26 | 28 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 15 | 35 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNI | MSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-59 | 28-58 |
| FG% | 42 | 48 |
| 3PT | 7-20 | 18-37 |
| 3P% | 35 | 49 |
| FT | 15-26 | 32-43 |
| FT% | 58 | 74 |
| REB | 28 | 46 |
| OR | 13 | 19 |
| DR | 15 | 27 |
| AST | 10 | 24 |
| STL | 7 | 7 |
| BLK | 2 | 9 |
| TO | 16 | 14 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 16 | 14 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 31 |
| FBPs | 16 | 20 |
| PIP | 32 | 16 |
| PF | 35 | 26 |
| LL | 0 | 37 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock UNI 65.41–90.61 MSU · MSU by 25.2 pts vs UNI +29.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
MissI. Johnson-Arigu · UNI
21 MIN · 7 PTSJ. Scott · MSU
17 MIN · 11 PTSJeremy Fears Jr. · MSU
STAT · 28 MIN · 24 PTS · 6-7 FG · 4-5 3PTJasiah Jervis · MSU
STAT · 23 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-9 FG · 5-6 3PTGreyson Uelmen · UNI
STAT · 20 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-9 FG · 1-1 3PTTate McCubbin · UNI
STAT · 24 MIN · 11 PTS · 3-5 FG · 3-5 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Northern Iowa vs Michigan St pick result · Nov 13, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UNI +29.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day