Oakland Golden Grizzlies at Michigan Wolverines
Final · BTN
68–84Last shot · Ivan Stojanovski misses 32-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected OAK 65.77–89.89 MICH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1698597029
- Winner: Michigan (99%)
- Spread: OAK +27.5 covers (62%)
- Total: Under 157.5 (61%)
- Score error (both teams)8
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
OAK 65.77–89.89 MICH · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMICH +1.7 off · OAK +0.0 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MICH
- RecordMICH 2-1 · OAK 0-1
- Market priorBlended 86% toward MICH -26.5 / total 157.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OAK | 36 | 32 | 68 |
| MICH | 47 | 37 | 84 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:5059–74
Chris Fields Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:5060–74
Chris Fields Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:3960–75
Oscar Goodman makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:0761–75
Camden Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2861–77
Roddy Gayle Jr. makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1664–77
RJ Taylor makes 29-foot three point jumper
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:0464–79
Jalen Reed makes 1-foot dunk (Elliot Cadeau assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4566–79
Chris Fields Jr. makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5266–81
Roddy Gayle Jr. makes 12-foot jumper (Trey McKenney assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:1967–81
Nassim Mashhour makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1968–81
Nassim Mashhour makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0868–84
Trey McKenney makes 27-foot three point jumper (Quinn Costello assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| OAK | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. Fields Jr. F · #2 | 34 | 18 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 8-12 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
 B. El Shakery F · #24 | 22 | 6 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
 W. Marshall IV G · #13 | 28 | 6 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 N. Mashhour G · #0 | 32 | 16 | 5-13 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
 RJ Taylor G · #10 | 17 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 N. Ahner F · #22 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 I. Theodile F · #21 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Thompson F · #6 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 D. Hamilton G · #11 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 I. Stojanovski G · #7 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 R. Bradley G · #3 | 26 | 12 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
 B. Swartz G · #5 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 W. Kassi G · #4 | 18 | 4 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 H. Mashhour G · #1 | 13 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 J. Hill F · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 68 | 20-63 | 6-26 | 22-30 | 44 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 21 | 23 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OAK | MICH | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 20-63 | 31-71 |
| FG% | 32 | 44 |
| 3PT | 6-26 | 7-34 |
| 3P% | 23 | 21 |
| FT | 22-30 | 15-20 |
| FT% | 73 | 75 |
| REB | 44 | 42 |
| OR | 21 | 16 |
| DR | 23 | 26 |
| AST | 5 | 17 |
| STL | 5 | 10 |
| BLK | 1 | 6 |
| TO | 15 | 9 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 15 |
| FBPs | 0 | 19 |
| PIP | 24 | 48 |
| PF | 19 | 24 |
| LL | 5 | 16 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 11 | 89 |
At lock OAK 65.77–89.89 MICH · MICH by 24.1 pts vs OAK +27.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitC. Fields Jr. · OAK
34 MIN · 18 PTSO. Goodman · MICH
22 MIN · 6 PTSRoddy Gayle Jr. · MICH
STAT · 25 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-11 FG · 0-2 3PTTrey McKenney · MICH
STAT · 35 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-12 FG · 3-6 3PTNassim Mashhour · OAK
STAT · 32 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-13 FG · 2-8 3PTJ.P. Estrella · MICH
STAT · 21 MIN · 15 PTS · 7-9 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Oakland vs Michigan pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is OAK +27.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day