Texas State Bobcats at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
Final · ESPN+
72–65Last shot · Caden Bell misses 28-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected TXST 74.93–69.27 RGV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 5:30 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2551628708
- Winner: Texas St (69%)
- Spread: RGV +6.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 143.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)8
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
TXST 74.93–69.27 RGV · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseRGV +9.2 off · TXST +15.3 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to RGV
- RecordRGV 2-1 · TXST 3-0
- Market priorBlended 70% toward TXST -5.5 / total 138.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXST | 30 | 42 | 72 |
| RGV | 28 | 37 | 65 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 0:3266–58
Jace Posey makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3266–59
Jace Posey makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2966–61
Devon Pryor makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:2167–61
Paul Djobet makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2168–61
Paul Djobet makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:1568–63
B.B. Knight makes 2-foot dunk (Devon Pryor assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:1469–63
Dimp Pernell makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1470–63
Dimp Pernell makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0670–64
T'Johnn Brown makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT2nd Half 0:0670–65
T'Johnn Brown makes free throw 3 of 3
- FT2nd Half 0:0471–65
Dimp Pernell makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0472–65
Dimp Pernell makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| TXST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DJ Hall F · #0 | 32 | 12 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
 P. Djobet F · #10 | 28 | 15 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
 R. Fields C · #3 | 28 | 11 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
 D. Pernell G · #2 | 25 | 26 | 9-12 | 4-7 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 K. Gumbs G · #11 | 27 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Abisogun F · #14 | 9 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 K. Grandison F · #5 | 9 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 R. Jessamy F · #21 | 3 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 KJ Younger G · #23 | 9 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 Ky Pernell G · #1 | 10 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Q. House G · #4 | 14 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 C. Steger G · #30 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
K K. Sanders F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Drone G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Livingston Jr. G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 72 | 24-49 | 11-23 | 13-13 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 13 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TXST | RGV | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-49 | 25-54 |
| FG% | 49 | 46 |
| 3PT | 11-23 | 7-19 |
| 3P% | 48 | 37 |
| FT | 13-13 | 8-13 |
| FT% | 100 | 62 |
| REB | 31 | 25 |
| OR | 10 | 10 |
| DR | 21 | 15 |
| AST | 16 | 13 |
| STL | 5 | 10 |
| BLK | 3 | 4 |
| TO | 15 | 9 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 15 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 8 | 16 |
| FBPs | 12 | 4 |
| PIP | 22 | 34 |
| PF | 13 | 15 |
| LL | 14 | 3 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 91 | 2 |
At lock TXST 74.93–69.27 RGV · TXST by 5.7 pts vs RGV +6.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissDJ Hall · TXST
32 MIN · 12 PTSB. Crawford Jr. · RGV
24 MIN · 6 PTSDimp Pernell · TXST
STAT · 25 MIN · 26 PTS · 9-12 FG · 4-7 3PTPaul Djobet · TXST
STAT · 28 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-8 FG · 3-5 3PTJace Posey · RGV
STAT · 35 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-12 FG · 0-1 3PTRobert Fields · TXST
STAT · 28 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-6 FG · 3-3 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Texas St vs UT Rio Grande pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is RGV +6.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day