Northwestern State Demons at Murray State Racers
Final · ESPN+
71–93Last shot · Roman Domon misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected NWST 66.70–88.63 MUR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:42 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2587240876
- Winner: Murray St (97%)
- Spread: NWST +23.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 155.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)8
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NWST 66.70–88.63 MUR · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMUR +24.4 off · NWST +11.5 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MUR
- RecordMUR 2-0 · NWST 0-3
- Market priorBlended 85% toward MUR -23.5 / total 155.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NWST | 39 | 32 | 71 |
| MUR | 42 | 51 | 93 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:3768–77
Brayden Shorter makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 4:3668–78
Brayden Shorter makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0468–81
Brayden Shorter makes 23-foot three point jumper (Christian Jones assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:5269–81
Antoine Almuttar makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3769–84
Brayden Shorter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Christian Jones assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1471–84
Isaiah Vick makes layup (Kai Simpson assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:5171–86
Roman Domon makes 1-foot dunk (Mathis Courbon assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:3471–88
Roman Domon makes 2-foot dunk (Christian Jones assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:5571–89
Roman Domon makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:5571–90
Roman Domon makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:3671–91
Lachlan Crate makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4771–93
Mathis Courbon makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NWST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 I. Vick F · #1 | 24 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 K. Turner F · #23 | 29 | 8 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
 N. Ojukwu F · #13 | 29 | 15 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
 An. Almuttar G · #5 | 35 | 10 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 K. Simpson G · #4 | 32 | 24 | 9-17 | 4-6 | 2-5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
 J. Nesbitt F · #15 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 C. Kelly F · #2 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Thomas F · #8 | 18 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
 Ar. Almuttar G · #22 | 21 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
 D. Brown G · #11 | 7 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 A. Osojnik F · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Remo G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 CJ Larry G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Miles G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 71 | 26-52 | 7-12 | 12-16 | 27 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NWST | MUR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-52 | 31-61 |
| FG% | 50 | 51 |
| 3PT | 7-12 | 14-32 |
| 3P% | 58 | 44 |
| FT | 12-16 | 17-24 |
| FT% | 75 | 71 |
| REB | 27 | 36 |
| OR | 5 | 13 |
| DR | 22 | 23 |
| AST | 14 | 23 |
| STL | 9 | 11 |
| BLK | 2 | 1 |
| TO | 18 | 13 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 18 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 15 | 26 |
| FBPs | 8 | 16 |
| PIP | 32 | 30 |
| PF | 22 | 17 |
| LL | 5 | 22 |
| LC | 10 | 10 |
| LPCT | 14 | 85 |
At lock NWST 66.70–88.63 MUR · MUR by 21.9 pts vs NWST +24.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitI. Vick · NWST
24 MIN · 6 PTSB. Rogers · MUR
30 MIN · 4 PTSBrayden Shorter · MUR
STAT · 25 MIN · 29 PTS · 10-16 FG · 8-12 3PTKai Simpson · NWST
STAT · 32 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-17 FG · 4-6 3PTRoman Domon · MUR
STAT · 33 MIN · 17 PTS · 4-16 FG · 0-8 3PTNathan Ojukwu · NWST
STAT · 29 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-7 FG · 1-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N'Western St vs Murray St pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NWST +24.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day