Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at UNLV Rebels
Final · MW+
77–89Last shot · Chris Komin misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected NAU 66.70–85.66 UNLV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 1:46 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3369563834
- Winner: UNLV (95%)
- Spread: NAU +21.5 covers (59%)
- Total: Over 152.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)13
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NAU 66.70–85.66 UNLV · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUNLV +0.0 off · NAU +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UNLV
- Market priorBlended 86% toward UNLV -20.5 / total 154.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAU | 47 | 30 | 77 |
| UNLV | 43 | 46 | 89 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:3467–81
Tyrin Jones makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:5170–81
Chris Komin makes 25-foot three point jumper
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:4570–83
Jeremy Foumena makes 4-foot dunk (Cam Miles assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:4171–83
Ryan Abelman makes free throw 1 of 1
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:4771–85
Sebastian Mack makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2473–85
Chris Komin makes 14-foot step back jumpshot
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:1573–87
Jeremy Foumena makes 6-foot dunk (Sebastian Mack assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:0174–87
Max Majerle makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5775–87
Ryan Abelman makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5776–87
Ryan Abelman makes free throw 2 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 0:2976–89
Jeremy Foumena makes 0-foot tip in layup
- FT2nd Half 0:0477–89
Chris Komin makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NAU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Toukam F · #1 | 26 | 16 | 7-12 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
 C. Komin G · #2 | 32 | 24 | 8-12 | 4-7 | 4-7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 M. Majerle G · #7 | 37 | 3 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 R. Abelman G · #11 | 22 | 12 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
 C. Bennett G · #22 | 14 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 T. Green F · #6 | 25 | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
 L. Wieskamp F · #3 | 13 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Anderson F · #4 | 13 | 4 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 N. George G · #23 | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Dorsey G · #0 | 16 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 Z. Tanner F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Keutcha C · #31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Mautz G · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Peterson G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 JT Amundsen G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 77 | 25-48 | 11-23 | 16-24 | 26 | 11 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NAU | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-48 | 29-61 |
| FG% | 52 | 48 |
| 3PT | 11-23 | 8-21 |
| 3P% | 48 | 38 |
| FT | 16-24 | 23-32 |
| FT% | 67 | 72 |
| REB | 26 | 37 |
| OR | 8 | 18 |
| DR | 18 | 19 |
| AST | 11 | 12 |
| STL | 3 | 11 |
| BLK | 2 | 5 |
| TO | 18 | 10 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 18 | 10 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 20 |
| FBPs | 4 | 31 |
| PIP | 28 | 42 |
| PF | 25 | 21 |
| LL | 12 | 14 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 41 | 54 |
At lock NAU 66.70–85.66 UNLV · UNLV by 19.0 pts vs NAU +21.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitL. Toukam · NAU
26 MIN · 16 PTST. Jones · UNLV
34 MIN · 12 PTSSebastian Mack · UNLV
STAT · 37 MIN · 31 PTS · 10-20 FG · 4-9 3PTChris Komin · NAU
STAT · 32 MIN · 24 PTS · 8-12 FG · 4-7 3PTCam Miles · UNLV
STAT · 37 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-12 FG · 2-7 3PTJeremy Foumena · UNLV
STAT · 25 MIN · 13 PTS · 6-9 FG · 1-3 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N Arizona vs UNLV pick result · Nov 3, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NAU +21.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day