Howard Bison at Yale Bulldogs
Final · ESPN+
62–72Last shot · Alex Cotton misses 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected HOW 72.29–77.92 YALE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1976033119
- Winner: Yale (69%)
- Spread: HOW +6.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 152.5 (61%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
HOW 72.29–77.92 YALE · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseYALE +0.0 off · HOW +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to YALE
- Market priorBlended 72% toward YALE -8.5 / total 153.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOW | 28 | 34 | 62 |
| YALE | 40 | 32 | 72 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:3354–65
Trevor Mullin makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3354–66
Trevor Mullin makes free throw 2 of 2
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 2:4356–66
Drew Harris makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5058–66
Drew Harris makes layup (Josiah Lawson assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:4458–67
Trevor Mullin makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4458–68
Trevor Mullin makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2458–69
Jordan Brathwaite makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:0960–69
Drew Harris makes 2-foot dunk
- FT2nd Half 0:3260–70
Jordan Brathwaite makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3260–71
Jordan Brathwaite makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1662–71
James Brown makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:1562–72
Trevor Mullin makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| HOW | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Kocevar C · #6 | 20 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
 J. Brown C · #13 | 30 | 11 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 |
 C. Taylor III G · #12 | 24 | 11 | 4-12 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
 C. Gillus G · #2 | 38 | 16 | 6-12 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
 A. Cotton G · #4 | 29 | 6 | 2-11 | 1-8 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
J J. Lawson F · #8 | 24 | 6 | 2-10 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 C. Robins Jr. F · #21 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
D D. Harris F · #1 | 13 | 8 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
 Je. Johnson G · #10 | 10 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
 B. Powell G · #3 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 I. Brown G · #0 | 5 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Ju. Johnson F · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Smith G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Frazier G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Okojie G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 62 | 24-68 | 7-27 | 7-16 | 41 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| HOW | YALE | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 24-68 | 23-64 |
| FG% | 35 | 36 |
| 3PT | 7-27 | 7-23 |
| 3P% | 26 | 30 |
| FT | 7-16 | 19-22 |
| FT% | 44 | 86 |
| REB | 41 | 51 |
| OR | 21 | 22 |
| DR | 20 | 29 |
| AST | 10 | 13 |
| STL | 12 | 3 |
| BLK | 7 | 4 |
| TO | 11 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 18 |
| FBPs | 11 | 10 |
| PIP | 32 | 28 |
| PF | 22 | 17 |
| LL | 5 | 15 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 11 | 86 |
At lock HOW 72.29–77.92 YALE · YALE by 5.6 pts vs HOW +6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissG. Kocevar · HOW
20 MIN · 2 PTSD. Ogunyemi · YALE
30 MIN · 8 PTSRiley Fox · YALE
STAT · 34 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-17 FG · 2-8 3PTJordan Brathwaite · YALE
STAT · 33 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-10 FG · 1-3 3PTCam Gillus · HOW
STAT · 38 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-12 FG · 4-6 3PTTrevor Mullin · YALE
STAT · 34 MIN · 12 PTS · 2-8 FG · 1-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Howard vs Yale pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is HOW +6.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day