Florida Atlantic Owls at Wright State Raiders
Final · ESPN+
71–97Last shot · Kanaan Carlyle makes free throw 3 of 3
At lock: projected FAU 77.82–81.84 WRST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 4:55 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1947146208
- Winner: Wright St (63%)
- Spread: WRST -3.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 158.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)22
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FAU 77.82–81.84 WRST · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseWRST +22.3 off · FAU +20.0 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to WRST
- RecordWRST 2-0 · FAU 1-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward WRST -3.5 / total 156.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAU | 28 | 43 | 71 |
| WRST | 47 | 50 | 97 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:1264–89
C.J. O'Hara makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1264–90
C.J. O'Hara makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:0265–90
Kanaan Carlyle makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:0266–90
Kanaan Carlyle makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1566–92
C.J. O'Hara makes 6-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3266–95
Noah Lewis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ilija Milijasevic assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:2467–95
David Musis makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2468–95
David Musis makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5268–97
C.J. O'Hara makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:2469–97
Kanaan Carlyle makes free throw 1 of 3
- FT2nd Half 0:2470–97
Kanaan Carlyle makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT2nd Half 0:2471–97
Kanaan Carlyle makes free throw 3 of 3
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| FAU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Porter-Brown F · #6 | 28 | 13 | 5-13 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 J. Harris F · #1 | 19 | 6 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 T. Ifaola C · #25 | 15 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
 F. Quinones G · #14 | 36 | 11 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 5-8 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
 K. Carlyle G · #9 | 40 | 25 | 6-12 | 4-6 | 9-9 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
M M. Puodziukaitis F · #33 | 18 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 D. Musis F · #21 | 15 | 6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 K. Mullen C · #12 | 11 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 M. Charles G · #55 | 18 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 Z. Sampaio G · #7 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 L. Dayco-Green G · #4 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 L. Smith G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Speed G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 F. Belibi Jr. G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Hamilton G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 71 | 22-54 | 8-19 | 19-26 | 26 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 16 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FAU | WRST | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-54 | 33-58 |
| FG% | 41 | 57 |
| 3PT | 8-19 | 7-20 |
| 3P% | 42 | 35 |
| FT | 19-26 | 24-27 |
| FT% | 73 | 89 |
| REB | 26 | 38 |
| OR | 10 | 11 |
| DR | 16 | 27 |
| AST | 10 | 14 |
| STL | 6 | 7 |
| BLK | 1 | 1 |
| TO | 14 | 10 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 20 |
| FBPs | 11 | 20 |
| PIP | 28 | 42 |
| PF | 21 | 18 |
| LL | 0 | 29 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 98 |
At lock FAU 77.82–81.84 WRST · WRST by 4.0 pts vs WRST -3.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitM. Porter-Brown · FAU
28 MIN · 13 PTSK. Pickett · WRST
22 MIN · 9 PTSKanaan Carlyle · FAU
STAT · 40 MIN · 25 PTS · 6-12 FG · 4-6 3PTC.J. O'Hara · WRST
STAT · 27 MIN · 24 PTS · 7-12 FG · 0-3 3PTChadlyn Traylor · WRST
STAT · 32 MIN · 20 PTS · 8-13 FG · 2-4 3PTAndrea Holden · WRST
STAT · 25 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-9 FG · 0-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
FAU vs Wright St pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is WRST -3.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day