Western Carolina Catamounts at UNC Asheville Bulldogs
Final · ESPN+
83–75Last shot · Ja'Corey Lipkins misses 30-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected WCU 75.93–74.52 UNCA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 1:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4209675181
- Winner: W Carolina (55%)
- Spread: UNCA +2.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 149.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)7
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
WCU 75.93–74.52 UNCA · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUNCA +18.1 off · WCU +22.1 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UNCA
- RecordUNCA 1-2 · WCU 1-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward WCU -3.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WCU | 44 | 39 | 83 |
| UNCA | 40 | 35 | 75 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:2874–68
Malachi Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2875–68
Malachi Brown makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2676–68
Malachi Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2677–68
Malachi Brown makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0778–68
Jaxon Prunty makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5578–71
Tylon Chatman makes 26-foot three point jumper (Daniel Thomas assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2580–71
Samuel Dada makes layup (Malachi Brown assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:1580–73
Myles Mayfield makes 2-foot dunk (Tylon Chatman assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4380–75
Tylon Chatman makes 13-foot turnaround jump shot
- FT2nd Half 0:2281–75
Jaxon Prunty makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2282–75
Jaxon Prunty makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0883–75
Malachi Brown makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| WCU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 S. Dada F · #12 | 27 | 13 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
 J. Roberts G · #2 | 30 | 17 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 5-6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 M. Brown G · #22 | 27 | 16 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 6-8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 J. Prunty G · #0 | 33 | 19 | 3-12 | 3-9 | 10-11 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 I. Manning G · #7 | 18 | 10 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
 F. Sodipo F · #23 | 8 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 T. Smith F · #21 | 13 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 D. Raymond F · #8 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Zhu G · #11 | 19 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 A. McKoy G · #6 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 T. Bryson G · #4 | 17 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Arias G · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Martins G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. DeRosa G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Baker G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Hollifield G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 83 | 23-52 | 8-22 | 29-38 | 33 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WCU | UNCA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-52 | 25-58 |
| FG% | 44 | 43 |
| 3PT | 8-22 | 11-29 |
| 3P% | 36 | 38 |
| FT | 29-38 | 14-24 |
| FT% | 76 | 58 |
| REB | 33 | 37 |
| OR | 10 | 13 |
| DR | 23 | 24 |
| AST | 14 | 14 |
| STL | 6 | 5 |
| BLK | 1 | 0 |
| TO | 9 | 12 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 9 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 19 | 15 |
| FBPs | 17 | 7 |
| PIP | 30 | 28 |
| PF | 22 | 24 |
| LL | 13 | 3 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 87 | 5 |
At lock WCU 75.93–74.52 UNCA · WCU by 1.4 pts vs UNCA +2.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissS. Dada · WCU
27 MIN · 13 PTSM. Mayfield · UNCA
27 MIN · 11 PTSJaxon Prunty · WCU
STAT · 33 MIN · 19 PTS · 3-12 FG · 3-9 3PTJaeden Roberts · WCU
STAT · 30 MIN · 17 PTS · 5-9 FG · 2-5 3PTMalachi Brown · WCU
STAT · 27 MIN · 16 PTS · 4-7 FG · 2-4 3PTConnor Dubsky · UNCA
STAT · 22 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-10 FG · 5-10 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
W Carolina vs UNC Asheville pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UNCA +2.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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