Idaho Vandals at Colorado State Rams
Final · YouTube
67–78Last shot · Jase Butler misses free throw 1 of 1
At lock: projected IDHO 68.87–82.56 CSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4208836538
- Winner: Colorado St (88%)
- Spread: IDHO +15.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Over 151.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)7
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
IDHO 68.87–82.56 CSU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCSU +18.0 off · IDHO +23.5 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CSU
- RecordCSU 2-0 · IDHO 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward CSU -15.5 / total 151.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IDHO | 33 | 34 | 67 |
| CSU | 36 | 42 | 78 |
Scoring plays
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 6:1060–63
Kyle Jorgensen makes 0-foot tip in layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:4960–66
Carey Booth makes 26-foot three point jumper (Justin Menard assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:2260–69
Justin Menard makes 26-foot three point jumper
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 4:2460–71
Kyle Jorgensen makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3762–71
Kase Wynott makes driving layup (Kristian Gonzalez assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:5864–71
Kase Wynott makes 10-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 2:2965–71
Kase Wynott makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:1065–73
Jase Butler makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3365–75
Jase Butler makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:3365–76
Jase Butler makes free throw 1 of 1
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5667–76
Miles Klapper makes layup
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:3167–78
Carey Booth makes 0-foot dunk
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| IDHO | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 H. Ward F · #8 | 35 | 13 | 6-13 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
 S. Joba F · #21 | 19 | 11 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 K. Wynott G · #51 | 32 | 19 | 7-16 | 2-8 | 3-6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 M. Klapper G · #24 | 38 | 8 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 K. Gonzalez G · #10 | 24 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
 Mo Diao F · #34 | 8 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 D. Trejo-Delgado F · #1 | 13 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 W. Jenson F · #32 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 B. Kennison G · #2 | 13 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 R. Lafferty G · #0 | 14 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
 N. Newman-Gomez F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Carney G · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Groves G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Toms G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Williams G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 TJ Wal G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 67 | 25-61 | 7-24 | 10-15 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| IDHO | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-61 | 30-60 |
| FG% | 41 | 50 |
| 3PT | 7-24 | 7-23 |
| 3P% | 29 | 30 |
| FT | 10-15 | 11-15 |
| FT% | 67 | 73 |
| REB | 34 | 37 |
| OR | 9 | 7 |
| DR | 25 | 30 |
| AST | 11 | 15 |
| STL | 3 | 6 |
| BLK | 1 | 5 |
| TO | 11 | 8 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 11 | 8 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 10 |
| FBPs | 2 | 8 |
| PIP | 22 | 38 |
| PF | 20 | 17 |
| LL | 7 | 11 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 42 | 50 |
At lock IDHO 68.87–82.56 CSU · CSU by 13.7 pts vs IDHO +15.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitH. Ward · IDHO
35 MIN · 13 PTSK. Jorgensen · CSU
32 MIN · 19 PTSKase Wynott · IDHO
STAT · 32 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-16 FG · 2-8 3PTJase Butler · CSU
STAT · 31 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-11 FG · 1-3 3PTCarey Booth · CSU
STAT · 31 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-10 FG · 3-6 3PTSeth Joba · IDHO
STAT · 19 MIN · 11 PTS · 3-5 FG · 3-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Idaho vs Colorado St pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is IDHO +15.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day