Idaho State Bengals at Wyoming Cowboys
Final · MW+
62–93Last shot · Aden Goffe makes 25-foot three pointer
At lock: projected IDST 64.93–81.21 WYO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 940372176
- Winner: Wyoming (92%)
- Spread: IDST +18.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Under 146.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)15
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
IDST 64.93–81.21 WYO · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseWYO +18.5 off · IDST +7.0 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to WYO
- RecordWYO 2-0 · IDST 0-2
- Market priorBlended 71% toward WYO -18.5 / total 146.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| IDST | 20 | 42 | 62 |
| WYO | 44 | 49 | 93 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:4352–82
Malik Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:4353–82
Malik Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:1753–84
Madden Smiley makes 10-foot floating jump shot
- FT2nd Half 3:0354–84
Eli Garner makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5754–86
Madden Smiley makes driving layup (Canin Jefferson assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2654–88
Madden Smiley makes layup (Canin Jefferson assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0657–88
Joven Dulay makes 23-foot three point jumper (Landen Birley assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4057–91
Kelan Gruver makes 24-foot three point jumper (Madden Smiley assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:2258–91
Joven Dulay makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2259–91
Joven Dulay makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2059–93
Neil Summers makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:1062–93
Aden Goffe makes 25-foot three pointer
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| IDST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mala. Johnson F · #14 | 15 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 K. DeMuynck F · #4 | 17 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 N. Amoran G · #10 | 17 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 M. Morris G · #2 | 32 | 17 | 6-13 | 0-1 | 5-5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 E. Harel G · #13 | 7 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 I. Palmer F · #23 | 17 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 B. Lowenbach F · #15 | 8 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 Malik Johnson F · #34 | 11 | 7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
 Q. Patterson F · #21 | 12 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 E. Garner G · #25 | 20 | 1 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Dulay G · #5 | 17 | 16 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 5-7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ty Virgil G · #3 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 L. Birley G · #11 | 17 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
 A. Goffe G · #55 | 8 | 4 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
 M. Amundsen G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Dorsey G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 62 | 18-58 | 6-20 | 20-27 | 27 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 12 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| IDST | WYO | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 18-58 | 32-64 |
| FG% | 31 | 50 |
| 3PT | 6-20 | 8-23 |
| 3P% | 30 | 35 |
| FT | 20-27 | 21-28 |
| FT% | 74 | 75 |
| REB | 27 | 50 |
| OR | 15 | 21 |
| DR | 12 | 29 |
| AST | 9 | 20 |
| STL | 4 | 11 |
| BLK | 10 | 7 |
| TO | 14 | 14 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 14 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 25 |
| FBPs | 2 | 19 |
| PIP | 22 | 46 |
| PF | 21 | 21 |
| LL | 0 | 36 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 98 |
At lock IDST 64.93–81.21 WYO · WYO by 16.3 pts vs IDST +18.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissMala. Johnson · IDST
15 MIN · 2 PTSG. Gores · WYO
15 MIN · 9 PTSNasir Meyer · WYO
STAT · 25 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-10 FG · 2-3 3PTMaCarhy Morris · IDST
STAT · 32 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-13 FG · 0-1 3PTJoven Dulay · IDST
STAT · 17 MIN · 16 PTS · 4-7 FG · 3-5 3PTRenars Sondors · WYO
STAT · 14 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-8 FG · 4-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Idaho St vs Wyoming pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is IDST +18.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day