Texas Southern Tigers at LSU Tigers
Final · SECN+
51–92Last shot · Ahmed Nedal misses 23-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected TXSO 65.31–96.04 LSU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3509714133
- Winner: LSU (100%)
- Spread: TXSO +35.5 covers (66%)
- Total: Under 161.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)18
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
TXSO 65.31–96.04 LSU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseLSU +22.6 off · TXSO +19.8 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to LSU
- RecordLSU 2-0 · TXSO 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward LSU -36.5 / total 161.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TXSO | 28 | 23 | 51 |
| LSU | 47 | 45 | 92 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:3744–80
Karris Bilal makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:3745–80
Karris Bilal makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:0145–82
Michael Ruzic makes layup (Saliou Niang assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4047–82
Trey Lewis makes 7-foot jumper
- FT2nd Half 3:1248–82
Kehlin Farooq makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1249–82
Kehlin Farooq makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:3449–85
Abdi Bashir Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Divine Ugochukwu assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:1650–85
Trey Lewis makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:1651–85
Trey Lewis makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 2:0251–87
Gilad Levy makes 1-foot dunk (Skyy Clark assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:2151–89
Jordan Bender makes layup (Skyy Clark assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3451–92
Abdi Bashir Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Skyy Clark assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| TXSO | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Akpovwa F · #35 | 24 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 J. Kimbrough G · #1 | 31 | 16 | 5-10 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 B. Vungo G · #5 | 30 | 6 | 2-8 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
 K. Bilal G · #3 | 35 | 9 | 2-16 | 0-4 | 5-6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 K. Farooq G · #32 | 30 | 3 | 0-7 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 |
T T. Lewis G · #12 | 12 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
S S. Sayed G · #2 | 14 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
J J. Walton G · #0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A A. Nedal G · #9 | 22 | 6 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
A A. Andrews F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 X. Wedlow F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Farmer F · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
J J. Gorecki C · #34 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Hamilton G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Patterson G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 51 | 14-59 | 7-24 | 16-23 | 29 | 7 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TXSO | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 14-59 | 36-63 |
| FG% | 24 | 57 |
| 3PT | 7-24 | 5-22 |
| 3P% | 29 | 23 |
| FT | 16-23 | 15-25 |
| FT% | 70 | 60 |
| REB | 29 | 50 |
| OR | 10 | 12 |
| DR | 19 | 38 |
| AST | 7 | 23 |
| STL | 12 | 10 |
| BLK | 2 | 8 |
| TO | 14 | 14 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 18 |
| FBPs | 9 | 23 |
| PIP | 12 | 62 |
| PF | 18 | 18 |
| LL | 4 | 41 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 9 | 86 |
At lock TXSO 65.31–96.04 LSU · LSU by 30.7 pts vs TXSO +35.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Akpovwa · TXSO
24 MIN · 4 PTSS. Niang · LSU
27 MIN · 15 PTSJason Kimbrough · TXSO
STAT · 31 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-10 FG · 4-7 3PTAbdi Bashir Jr. · LSU
STAT · 23 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-10 FG · 4-9 3PTMo Dioubate · LSU
STAT · 23 MIN · 13 PTS · 6-8 FG · 1-2 3PTMichael Ruzic · LSU
STAT · 22 MIN · 12 PTS · 6-7 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Texas Southern vs LSU pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TXSO +35.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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