La Salle Explorers at Villanova Wildcats
Final · truTV
59–80Last shot · Trey Moss misses 14-foot jumper
At lock: projected LAS 69.83–89.31 VILL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3358437192
- Winner: Villanova (96%)
- Spread: LAS +22.5 covers (60%)
- Total: Under 159.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)20
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LAS 69.83–89.31 VILL · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseVILL +12.2 off · LAS -0.1 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to VILL
- RecordVILL 2-1 · LAS 1-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward VILL -20.5 / total 157.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAS | 31 | 28 | 59 |
| VILL | 36 | 44 | 80 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 7:4154–64
Tyler Perkins makes driving layup (Elijah Crawford assists)
- FT2nd Half 7:1255–64
Noah Collier makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 7:0055–65
Kwame Evans Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 7:0055–66
Kwame Evans Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 6:1755–69
Tyler Perkins makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:1955–72
Jake Fiegen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Elijah Crawford assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:1558–72
Trey Moss makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden Johnson assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:3259–72
Jaden Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0559–74
Luigi Suigo makes 8-foot step back jumpshot (Tyler Perkins assists)
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:3959–76
Devin Royal makes 4-foot dunk (Luigi Suigo assists)
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 1:0059–78
Luigi Suigo makes 0-foot tip in dunk
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2059–80
Jake Fiegen makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| LAS | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Finkley F · #5 | 15 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
 N. Collier F · #7 | 29 | 11 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
 J. Johnson G · #10 | 27 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 K. Burton G · #0 | 22 | 8 | 3-13 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 R. Dockery G · #2 | 11 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
 B. Beatty F · #25 | 10 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
 V. Zanki F · #11 | 17 | 6 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 RJ Smith G · #3 | 22 | 13 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Booker G · #4 | 26 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 T. Moss G · #8 | 21 | 7 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
J J. Mboudjika F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 F. Nkoy-Eale F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Lipacis F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Rink F · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Brewer Jr. F · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Webb G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Lynam G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Masharaliyev G · #28 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 59 | 22-66 | 6-25 | 9-15 | 41 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 23 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LAS | VILL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-66 | 31-59 |
| FG% | 33 | 53 |
| 3PT | 6-25 | 7-22 |
| 3P% | 24 | 32 |
| FT | 9-15 | 11-18 |
| FT% | 60 | 61 |
| REB | 41 | 39 |
| OR | 18 | 10 |
| DR | 23 | 29 |
| AST | 14 | 20 |
| STL | 7 | 7 |
| BLK | 2 | 4 |
| TO | 13 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 6 | 14 |
| FBPs | 10 | 6 |
| PIP | 24 | 48 |
| PF | 21 | 17 |
| LL | 2 | 21 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 2 | 88 |
At lock LAS 69.83–89.31 VILL · VILL by 19.5 pts vs LAS +22.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Finkley · LAS
15 MIN · 2 PTSD. Royal · VILL
29 MIN · 15 PTSLuigi Suigo · VILL
STAT · 31 MIN · 19 PTS · 8-12 FG · 0-2 3PTRJ Smith · LAS
STAT · 22 MIN · 13 PTS · 6-12 FG · 1-4 3PTNoah Collier · LAS
STAT · 29 MIN · 11 PTS · 4-8 FG · 3-4 FTTyler Perkins · VILL
STAT · 33 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-11 FG · 2-7 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
La Salle vs Villanova pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is LAS +22.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day