South Alabama Jaguars at UCF Knights
Final · ESPN+
69–76Last shot · Stephen Williams makes 5-foot dunk (Jalen Langsy assists)
At lock: projected USA 69.68–82.45 UCF
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1026745509
- Winner: UCF (87%)
- Spread: USA +14.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Over 151.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)8
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
USA 69.68–82.45 UCF · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseUCF +13.3 off · USA +16.0 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to UCF
- RecordUCF 3-0 · USA 1-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward UCF -13.5 / total 150.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 34 | 35 | 69 |
| UCF | 32 | 44 | 76 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:4260–69
Stephen Williams makes 9-foot hook shot
- FT2nd Half 3:5760–70
Arturo Dean makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5960–72
Churchill Abass makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:5461–72
Aaron Goldstein makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:5462–72
Aaron Goldstein makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5465–72
Aaron Goldstein makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Langsy assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:2365–73
Dior Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2365–74
Dior Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1067–74
Stephen Williams makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:1067–75
Dior Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1067–76
Dior Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:0369–76
Stephen Williams makes 5-foot dunk (Jalen Langsy assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| USA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Hueitt F · #24 | 25 | 6 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 S. Williams F · #4 | 29 | 18 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
 A. Goldstein G · #21 | 35 | 20 | 6-14 | 6-12 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 D. Roman G · #13 | 13 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
 J. Langsy G · #1 | 37 | 7 | 3-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 L. Kunzewitsch F · #6 | 20 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 R. Williams Jr. F · #10 | 11 | 9 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
 P. Law F · #9 | 22 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
 D. Williams G · #3 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 S. Shoptaw G · #0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Sereda F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Costa F · #20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Kenney F · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Lewis G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 69 | 27-59 | 8-21 | 7-9 | 36 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 15 | 21 | 15 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| USA | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-59 | 25-55 |
| FG% | 46 | 45 |
| 3PT | 8-21 | 17-38 |
| 3P% | 38 | 45 |
| FT | 7-9 | 9-15 |
| FT% | 78 | 60 |
| REB | 36 | 29 |
| OR | 15 | 11 |
| DR | 21 | 18 |
| AST | 12 | 15 |
| STL | 8 | 9 |
| BLK | 3 | 2 |
| TO | 12 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 12 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 18 |
| FBPs | 4 | 15 |
| PIP | 36 | 8 |
| PF | 15 | 14 |
| LL | 8 | 12 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 45 | 53 |
At lock USA 69.68–82.45 UCF · UCF by 12.8 pts vs USA +14.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitD. Hueitt · USA
25 MIN · 6 PTSI. Malone · UCF
22 MIN · 3 PTSDior Johnson · UCF
STAT · 32 MIN · 24 PTS · 7-12 FG · 4-8 3PTCarmelo Pacheco · UCF
STAT · 30 MIN · 24 PTS · 8-12 FG · 8-12 3PTAaron Goldstein · USA
STAT · 35 MIN · 20 PTS · 6-14 FG · 6-12 3PTStephen Williams · USA
STAT · 29 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-11 FG · 2-2 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
South Alabama vs UCF pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is USA +14.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day