Green Bay Phoenix at Cincinnati Bearcats
Final · ESPN+
64–81Last shot · Clarence Payia makes 26-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected GB 66.09–87.15 CIN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 2:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 993337366
- Winner: Cincinnati (97%)
- Spread: GB +24.5 covers (62%)
- Total: Under 153.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)8
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
GB 66.09–87.15 CIN · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseCIN +18.6 off · GB +27.2 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to CIN
- RecordCIN 2-0 · GB 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward CIN -24.5 / total 152.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 32 | 32 | 64 |
| CIN | 40 | 41 | 81 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:3151–67
Isaiah Sutherland makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ahmere Carson assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0153–67
Orlando Lovejoy makes 14-foot jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3353–70
Myles Colvin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Eric Mahaffey assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1855–70
Orlando Lovejoy makes driving layup (Ahmere Carson assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0055–73
MJ Collins Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Tejada assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4458–73
Marcus Hall makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ahmere Carson assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:2358–75
Amani Lyles makes layup (MJ Collins Jr. assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:3061–75
Isaiah Sutherland makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ahmere Carson assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:1761–77
Amani Lyles makes layup (Eric Mahaffey assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5561–79
Amani Lyles makes layup (MJ Collins Jr. assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1161–81
Myles Colvin makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0364–81
Clarence Payia makes 26-foot three point jumper
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| GB | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 I. Sutherland F · #24 | 18 | 12 | 4-5 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Hall F · #13 | 35 | 6 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 M. Cicic C · #20 | 13 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
A A. Carson G · #2 | 22 | 9 | 4-9 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
 O. Lovejoy G · #0 | 29 | 16 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
T T. Colnaric F · #36 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Hadaway F · #6 | 15 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
C C. Payia G · #23 | 23 | 12 | 4-8 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
N N. Brown G · #7 | 20 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
S S. Erhart II G · #1 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 L. Thomas G · #22 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 M. Wrecke G · #4 | 13 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
H H. Gruetzmacher F · #31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
C C. Burnett G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Van Kauwenberg G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Fitzgerald G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 64 | 23-48 | 7-22 | 11-17 | 25 | 11 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GB | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-48 | 28-57 |
| FG% | 48 | 49 |
| 3PT | 7-22 | 10-30 |
| 3P% | 32 | 33 |
| FT | 11-17 | 15-22 |
| FT% | 65 | 68 |
| REB | 25 | 29 |
| OR | 7 | 12 |
| DR | 18 | 17 |
| AST | 11 | 20 |
| STL | 4 | 9 |
| BLK | 1 | 5 |
| TO | 21 | 9 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 21 | 9 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 23 |
| FBPs | 3 | 11 |
| PIP | 24 | 36 |
| PF | 17 | 17 |
| LL | 2 | 21 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 3 | 88 |
At lock GB 66.09–87.15 CIN · CIN by 21.1 pts vs GB +24.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitI. Sutherland · GB
18 MIN · 12 PTST. Tejada · CIN
20 MIN · 0-7 FGMyles Colvin · CIN
STAT · 34 MIN · 28 PTS · 9-16 FG · 6-11 3PTOrlando Lovejoy · GB
STAT · 29 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-10 FG · 2-4 FTMJ Collins Jr. · CIN
STAT · 34 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-8 FG · 3-6 3PTAmani Lyles · CIN
STAT · 22 MIN · 14 PTS · 7-10 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Green Bay vs Cincinnati pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is GB +24.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day