Montana State Bobcats at BYU Cougars
Final · ESPN+
71–86Last shot · Darnez Slater makes 11-foot jumper
At lock: projected MTST 72.18–92.55 BYU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 11, 10:54 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1026892604
- Winner: BYU (97%)
- Spread: MTST +23.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Over 164.5 (62%)
- Score error (both teams)10
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MTST 72.18–92.55 BYU · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseBYU +8.9 off · MTST +1.3 off, shrunk 27%
- Home field+3.4 pts to BYU
- RecordBYU 4-0 · MTST 1-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward BYU -21.5 / total 162.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTST | 29 | 42 | 71 |
| BYU | 43 | 43 | 86 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:4360–81
Collin Chandler makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bruce Branch III assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0762–81
London Praytor makes 6-foot jumper (Jeremiah Davis assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:0763–81
London Praytor makes free throw 1 of 1
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:2465–81
London Praytor makes layup (Jeremiah Davis assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:3765–82
Bruce Branch III makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3765–83
Bruce Branch III makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:2165–84
Robert Wright III makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5065–86
Robert Wright III makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:4967–86
Darnez Slater makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:1368–86
Hale Hansen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1369–86
Hale Hansen makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2871–86
Darnez Slater makes 11-foot jumper
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MTST | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. King F · #31 | 28 | 12 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 J. Steppe F · #44 | 18 | 6 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 C. Holden G · #4 | 30 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 J. Davis G · #5 | 29 | 14 | 5-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 J. Miller G · #24 | 29 | 6 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
 H. Hansen F · #7 | 3 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 L. Praytor F · #21 | 19 | 14 | 5-7 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 S. Amunrud G · #12 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 H. Keene G · #2 | 20 | 6 | 2-7 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 D. Slater G · #0 | 18 | 9 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
 J. Steward F · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Rutherfurd F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Mbatch F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
D D. Johnson G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Purdie G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Crane G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 71 | 27-62 | 10-34 | 7-13 | 30 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MTST | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-62 | 32-55 |
| FG% | 44 | 58 |
| 3PT | 10-34 | 9-22 |
| 3P% | 29 | 41 |
| FT | 7-13 | 13-24 |
| FT% | 54 | 54 |
| REB | 30 | 38 |
| OR | 9 | 8 |
| DR | 21 | 30 |
| AST | 16 | 15 |
| STL | 7 | 11 |
| BLK | 2 | 2 |
| TO | 12 | 12 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 12 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 16 |
| FBPs | 4 | 28 |
| PIP | 24 | 46 |
| PF | 18 | 17 |
| LL | 0 | 21 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock MTST 72.18–92.55 BYU · BYU by 20.4 pts vs MTST +23.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitC. King · MTST
28 MIN · 12 PTSB. Branch III · BYU
25 MIN · 17 PTSRobert Wright III · BYU
STAT · 31 MIN · 22 PTS · 9-15 FG · 0-3 3PTJeremiah Davis · MTST
STAT · 29 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-7 FG · 2-3 3PTLondon Praytor · MTST
STAT · 19 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-7 FG · 2-4 3PTJaxon Kohler · BYU
STAT · 24 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-5 FG · 2-2 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Montana St vs BYU pick result · Nov 12, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MTST +23.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day