East Tennessee State Buccaneers at Arizona State Sun Devils
Final · ESPN+
65–75Last shot · BJ Ward makes 14-foot jumper
At lock: projected ETSU 64.91–80.43 ASU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 891538819
- Winner: Arizona St (91%)
- Spread: ETSU +17.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Over 145.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)6
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ETSU 64.91–80.43 ASU · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseASU +0.0 off · ETSU +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to ASU
- Market priorBlended 86% toward ASU -19.5 / total 145.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETSU | 31 | 34 | 65 |
| ASU | 37 | 38 | 75 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:5057–65
Tyran Mason makes free throw 1 of 1
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:3359–65
BJ Ward makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 2:2059–66
Joel Foxwell makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5759–68
Paulius Murauskas makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:5759–69
Paulius Murauskas makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1859–72
Dillan Shaw makes 23-foot three point jumper (Joel Foxwell assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0461–72
BJ Ward makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:5261–73
Joel Foxwell makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5261–74
Joel Foxwell makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:2863–74
Marqus Marion makes 0-foot dunk
- FT2nd Half 0:0563–75
Paulius Murauskas makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0165–75
BJ Ward makes 14-foot jumper
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ETSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Marion F · #11 | 30 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
 K. Campbell F · #8 | 11 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
 J. Cooper G · #1 | 30 | 10 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 T. Mason G · #7 | 22 | 8 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
 BJ Ward G · #0 | 37 | 25 | 10-23 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 E. Smith F · #15 | 20 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
 C. Busse G · #4 | 4 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 M. Huff G · #3 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 T. Hennig G · #6 | 25 | 15 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 M. Johnson G · #2 | 21 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
 J. McCullum F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Crump F · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Maller G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Payne G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 65 | 25-55 | 7-17 | 8-12 | 31 | 10 | 13 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 19 | 26 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ETSU | ASU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 25-55 | 23-53 |
| FG% | 45 | 43 |
| 3PT | 7-17 | 8-26 |
| 3P% | 41 | 31 |
| FT | 8-12 | 21-26 |
| FT% | 67 | 81 |
| REB | 31 | 34 |
| OR | 12 | 14 |
| DR | 19 | 20 |
| AST | 10 | 13 |
| STL | 9 | 3 |
| BLK | 0 | 2 |
| TO | 13 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 10 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 23 |
| FBPs | 5 | 6 |
| PIP | 30 | 30 |
| PF | 26 | 12 |
| LL | 1 | 13 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 3 | 93 |
At lock ETSU 64.91–80.43 ASU · ASU by 15.5 pts vs ETSU +17.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitM. Marion · ETSU
30 MIN · 4 PTSP. Murauskas · ASU
40 MIN · 21 PTSBJ Ward · ETSU
STAT · 37 MIN · 25 PTS · 10-23 FG · 2-5 3PTTrevor Hennig · ETSU
STAT · 25 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-8 FG · 1-3 3PTJoel Foxwell · ASU
STAT · 40 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-9 FG · 2-5 3PTDillan Shaw · ASU
STAT · 31 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-12 FG · 2-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
ETSU vs Arizona St pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ETSU +17.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day