Wagner Seahawks at Miami Hurricanes
Final · ACC Network
57–83Last shot · Kareem Watson makes layup (Ryan Pettis assists)
At lock: projected WAG 55.48–88.73 MIA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3374920621
- Winner: Miami (100%)
- Spread: WAG +38.5 covers (66%)
- Total: Under 144.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)8
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
WAG 55.48–88.73 MIA · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMIA +19.2 off · WAG +14.6 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MIA
- RecordMIA 1-1 · WAG 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward MIA -38.5 / total 144.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAG | 21 | 36 | 57 |
| MIA | 34 | 49 | 83 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 4:4644–75
Caleb Gaskins makes 1-foot dunk
- FT2nd Half 4:2945–75
Tajae Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:2946–75
Tajae Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0648–75
Cam Estevez makes 9-foot floating jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4648–78
Brent Bland makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dante Allen assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1251–78
Ryan Pettis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaren Curtis assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:0251–81
Brent Bland makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dante Allen assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:0951–82
Dante Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0951–83
Dante Allen makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4053–83
Jaren Curtis makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:2555–83
Kareem Watson makes 16-foot pullup jump shot
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0157–83
Kareem Watson makes layup (Ryan Pettis assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| WAG | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Jones F · #7 | 34 | 13 | 3-12 | 0-1 | 7-9 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
 AJ Rodriguez F · #8 | 21 | 6 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 Y. Singar C · #24 | 21 | 6 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
 T. Bryant G · #1 | 32 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 C. Estevez G · #3 | 32 | 10 | 4-16 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 F. Hassan F · #9 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 K. Watson F · #13 | 16 | 9 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 W. Patterson Jr. C · #2 | 9 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
 J. Curtis G · #0 | 11 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 R. Pettis G · #6 | 19 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 D. Kaba F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Smith Jr. C · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 G. Edwards G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. McGrady G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 57 | 21-63 | 7-26 | 8-13 | 33 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 22 | 15 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WAG | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 21-63 | 31-58 |
| FG% | 33 | 53 |
| 3PT | 7-26 | 5-19 |
| 3P% | 27 | 26 |
| FT | 8-13 | 16-18 |
| FT% | 62 | 89 |
| REB | 33 | 36 |
| OR | 11 | 7 |
| DR | 22 | 29 |
| AST | 7 | 18 |
| STL | 6 | 10 |
| BLK | 5 | 1 |
| TO | 15 | 11 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 12 | 20 |
| FBPs | 3 | 24 |
| PIP | 22 | 52 |
| PF | 15 | 13 |
| LL | 2 | 32 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 1 | 94 |
At lock WAG 55.48–88.73 MIA · MIA by 33.3 pts vs WAG +38.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
HitT. Jones · WAG
34 MIN · 13 PTSC. Gaskins · MIA
29 MIN · 11 PTSShelton Henderson · MIA
STAT · 27 MIN · 19 PTS · 8-12 FG · 0-3 3PTMalik Reneau · MIA
STAT · 23 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-7 FG · 2-2 FTCam Estevez · WAG
STAT · 32 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-16 FG · 2-10 3PTKareem Watson · WAG
STAT · 16 MIN · 9 PTS · 4-8 FG · 1-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wagner vs Miami pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is WAG +38.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day