New Hampshire Wildcats at Rider Broncs
Final · ESPN+
66–55Last shot · Bryce Baker makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected UNH 71.21–69.72 RID
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 2:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1487383003
- Winner: New Hampshire (55%)
- Spread: UNH -1.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Under 141.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)21
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UNH 71.21–69.72 RID · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseRID +20.9 off · UNH +20.2 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to RID
- RecordRID 0-2 · UNH 2-0
- Market priorBlended 85% toward UNH -1.5 / total 141.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | 27 | 39 | 66 |
| RID | 26 | 29 | 55 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5459–48
Josiah Coleman makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:4259–49
Rich Brisco makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:3159–50
Khalil Farmer makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:3159–51
Khalil Farmer makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2560–51
Josiah Coleman makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:2561–51
Josiah Coleman makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0861–53
Khalil Farmer makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4964–53
Tyler Bike makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josiah Coleman assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:2865–53
Josiah Coleman makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2866–53
Josiah Coleman makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2066–54
Bryce Baker makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2066–55
Bryce Baker makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UNH | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. McKenna F · #5 | 19 | 8 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 |
 J. Squire F · #7 | 20 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
 R. Zan F · #21 | 34 | 15 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 M. Blackley G · #4 | 26 | 6 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 T. Bike G · #0 | 33 | 11 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
K K. Myers F · #22 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 G. Xanthopoulos C · #6 | 18 | 7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 5 |
 J. Coleman G · #11 | 25 | 15 | 4-7 | 0-3 | 7-8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
 J. Faumuina G · #1 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 E. Oliver-Bush G · #2 | 20 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 J. O'Neill F · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Poser F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Squire G · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Sangermano II G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 P. Miglani G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 66 | 22-46 | 4-15 | 18-27 | 36 | 8 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 24 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNH | RID | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 22-46 | 16-61 |
| FG% | 48 | 26 |
| 3PT | 4-15 | 2-20 |
| 3P% | 27 | 10 |
| FT | 18-27 | 21-31 |
| FT% | 67 | 68 |
| REB | 36 | 44 |
| OR | 5 | 21 |
| DR | 31 | 23 |
| AST | 8 | 7 |
| STL | 5 | 6 |
| BLK | 5 | 1 |
| TO | 14 | 13 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 15 | 12 |
| FBPs | 18 | 4 |
| PIP | 32 | 26 |
| PF | 24 | 25 |
| LL | 13 | 3 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 74 | 17 |
At lock UNH 71.21–69.72 RID · 0.6 pts under 141.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
HitD. McKenna · UNH
19 MIN · 8 PTSR. Brisco · RID
23 MIN · 14 PTSRyan Zan · UNH
STAT · 34 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-9 FG · 1-2 3PTJosiah Coleman · UNH
STAT · 25 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-7 FG · 0-3 3PTKhalil Farmer · RID
STAT · 33 MIN · 12 PTS · 3-9 FG · 0-3 3PTTyler Bike · UNH
STAT · 33 MIN · 11 PTS · 3-8 FG · 1-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
New Hampshire vs Rider pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 141.5, with a 50% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day