UAlbany Great Danes at Manhattan Jaspers
Final · ESPN+
72–68Last shot · Ben Pearce misses 22-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected UALB 72.20–74.49 MAN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 2:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1504013527
- Winner: Manhattan (57%)
- Spread: UALB +3.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 146.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)8
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UALB 72.20–74.49 MAN · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMAN +12.2 off · UALB +15.9 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MAN
- RecordMAN 0-2 · UALB 2-0
- Market priorBlended 71% toward MAN -3.5 / total 147.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UALB | 32 | 40 | 72 |
| MAN | 31 | 37 | 68 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 1:5766–62
Tyler Jones makes 3-foot dunk
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3566–64
Novak Manojlovic makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 1:0867–64
U-Mier Graham makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0868–64
U-Mier Graham makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4769–64
Papa Kounta makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3869–65
Ben Pearce makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3869–66
Ben Pearce makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2170–66
U-Mier Graham makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2171–66
U-Mier Graham makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1671–67
Ben Pearce makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1671–68
Ben Pearce makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1272–68
Tyler Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UALB | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 U. Graham F · #23 | 26 | 9 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
 O. Engen G · #2 | 40 | 12 | 5-16 | 0-6 | 2-4 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 T. Jones G · #1 | 38 | 23 | 6-15 | 2-6 | 9-12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
 A. Fall G · #7 | 13 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
 Z. Matulu G · #14 | 31 | 15 | 5-11 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
 E. Bussing F · #9 | 14 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 K. Webb C · #13 | 6 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 P. Kounta G · #0 | 30 | 7 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 3-6 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
 M. Rose G · #4 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 P. Miovic F · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Michaels F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Smith C · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Ndao G · #19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 W. Paulino G · #3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 P. Santos G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 72 | 23-56 | 5-25 | 21-30 | 37 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 23 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UALB | MAN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-56 | 27-59 |
| FG% | 41 | 46 |
| 3PT | 5-25 | 5-21 |
| 3P% | 20 | 24 |
| FT | 21-30 | 9-18 |
| FT% | 70 | 50 |
| REB | 37 | 36 |
| OR | 14 | 12 |
| DR | 23 | 24 |
| AST | 15 | 14 |
| STL | 10 | 3 |
| BLK | 4 | 1 |
| TO | 10 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 10 | 14 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 18 | 4 |
| FBPs | 14 | 7 |
| PIP | 30 | 36 |
| PF | 19 | 23 |
| LL | 9 | 0 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 98 | 0 |
At lock UALB 72.20–74.49 MAN · MAN by 2.3 pts vs UALB +3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitU. Graham · UALB
26 MIN · 9 PTSN. Manojlovic · MAN
19 MIN · 12 PTSTyler Jones · UALB
STAT · 38 MIN · 23 PTS · 6-15 FG · 2-6 3PTDusan Eric · MAN
STAT · 19 MIN · 16 PTS · 7-12 FG · 2-5 3PTZacharie Matulu · UALB
STAT · 31 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-11 FG · 3-8 3PTOllie Engen · UALB
STAT · 40 MIN · 12 PTS · 5-16 FG · 0-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UAlbany vs Manhattan pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is UALB +3.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day