Delaware State Hornets at Navy Midshipmen
Final · ESPN+
60–66Last shot · Nasir Muhammad makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected DSU 64.02–70.30 NAVY
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 2:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2419166298
- Winner: Navy (71%)
- Spread: DSU +8.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Under 134.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)9
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
DSU 64.02–70.30 NAVY · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseNAVY +22.6 off · DSU +16.1 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to NAVY
- RecordNAVY 1-1 · DSU 1-1
- Market priorBlended 85% toward NAVY -9.5 / total 136.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DSU | 29 | 31 | 60 |
| NAVY | 32 | 34 | 66 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:3052–58
Jerry Ashley Jr. makes 4-foot jumper (Cam Cole assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:5052–59
Jordan Pennick makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5052–60
Jordan Pennick makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5452–63
Jordan Pennick makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jinwoo Kim assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:4854–63
Nehemiah Reedus makes 18-foot jumper (Nasir Muhammad assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:4754–64
Jordan Pennick makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4754–65
Jordan Pennick makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:3656–65
Dean Shepherd makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:3256–66
David Burnett makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2658–66
Nasir Muhammad makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:0559–66
Nasir Muhammad makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:0560–66
Nasir Muhammad makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| DSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
J J. Obiora F · #24 | 26 | 9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
 M. Adamu F · #35 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
N N. Reedus SG · #10 | 39 | 17 | 7-14 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
 N. Muhammad PG · #3 | 38 | 16 | 6-15 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
A A. Parker G · #2 | 28 | 6 | 2-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
F F. Muntari F · #34 | 28 | 8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
G G. Ekukwai F · #5 | 11 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
I I. Sullivan SG · #11 | 13 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 J. St Clair G · #8 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
 D. Shepherd G · #22 | 7 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
T T. Hawkins F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Santos F · #37 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 P. Smith Jr. F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
N N. Baysah Jr. G · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Moore G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 60 | 23-53 | 5-21 | 9-15 | 34 | 12 | 18 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 26 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DSU | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-53 | 19-50 |
| FG% | 43 | 38 |
| 3PT | 5-21 | 9-24 |
| 3P% | 24 | 38 |
| FT | 9-15 | 19-34 |
| FT% | 60 | 56 |
| REB | 34 | 38 |
| OR | 8 | 13 |
| DR | 26 | 25 |
| AST | 12 | 12 |
| STL | 11 | 8 |
| BLK | 1 | 3 |
| TO | 18 | 17 |
| TTO | 0 | 2 |
| ToTO | 18 | 17 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 19 | 7 |
| FBPs | 9 | 5 |
| PIP | 28 | 20 |
| PF | 26 | 15 |
| LL | 3 | 11 |
| LC | 9 | 9 |
| LPCT | 26 | 67 |
At lock DSU 64.02–70.30 NAVY · NAVY by 6.3 pts vs DSU +8.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitJ. Obiora · DSU
26 MIN · 9 PTSJ. Ashley Jr. · NAVY
25 MIN · 12 PTSJordan Pennick · NAVY
STAT · 38 MIN · 24 PTS · 5-14 FG · 3-7 3PTNehemiah Reedus · DSU
STAT · 39 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-14 FG · 1-6 3PTNasir Muhammad · DSU
STAT · 38 MIN · 16 PTS · 6-15 FG · 2-7 3PTDavid Burnett · NAVY
STAT · 35 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-10 FG · 2-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Delaware St vs Navy pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is DSU +8.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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