UT Martin Skyhawks at IU Indianapolis Jaguars
Final · ESPN+
74–75Last shot · Gus Etchison makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected UTM 80.72–79.78 IUIN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 1:14 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1239094310
- Winner: UT Martin (54%)
- Spread: IUIN +2.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 158.5 (63%)
- Score error (both teams)12
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UTM 80.72–79.78 IUIN · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseIUIN +21.6 off · UTM +21.0 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to IUIN
- RecordIUIN 2-0 · UTM 0-2
- Market priorBlended 71% toward UTM -1.5 / total 171.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTM | 34 | 40 | 74 |
| IUIN | 36 | 39 | 75 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 3:5069–62
Nikola Janicic makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0069–65
Gus Etchison makes 26-foot three point jumper
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2169–67
Gus Etchison makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Markus Pastorcic-Straun assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:4169–70
Kameron Tinsley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Gus Etchison assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:1470–70
Davi Remagen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1471–70
Davi Remagen makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:0271–73
Kameron Tinsley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Markus Pastorcic-Straun assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3372–73
Vladimir Khryapa makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3373–73
Davi Remagen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3374–73
Davi Remagen makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1674–74
Gus Etchison makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1674–75
Gus Etchison makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UTM | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Vilkas F · #27 | 18 | 7 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
 V. Khryapa F · #31 | 22 | 14 | 5-6 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 S. Savkov G · #6 | 14 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
 F. Petkovski G · #22 | 32 | 2 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 |
 D. Remagen G · #1 | 29 | 19 | 7-14 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
 O. Sambe F · #10 | 15 | 6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
 A. Bancevicius F · #4 | 16 | 7 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
 K. Onat G · #29 | 24 | 9 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 3-5 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 N. Janicic G · #11 | 20 | 8 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 N. Stuknys G · #9 | 10 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
 G. Sulaberidze F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 G. Bubnys F · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Hong G · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Conley G · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 E. Moya G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 74 | 28-53 | 4-18 | 14-21 | 43 | 18 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UTM | IUIN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 28-53 | 23-62 |
| FG% | 53 | 37 |
| 3PT | 4-18 | 10-38 |
| 3P% | 22 | 26 |
| FT | 14-21 | 19-24 |
| FT% | 67 | 79 |
| REB | 43 | 25 |
| OR | 13 | 11 |
| DR | 30 | 14 |
| AST | 18 | 11 |
| STL | 5 | 8 |
| BLK | 2 | 2 |
| TO | 20 | 7 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 20 | 7 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 8 | 22 |
| FBPs | 13 | 2 |
| PIP | 46 | 20 |
| PF | 18 | 19 |
| LL | 13 | 5 |
| LC | 13 | 13 |
| LPCT | 82 | 12 |
At lock UTM 80.72–79.78 IUIN · UTM by 0.9 pts vs IUIN +2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Vilkas · UTM
18 MIN · 7 PTSK. Tinsley · IUIN
30 MIN · 16 PTSGus Etchison · IUIN
STAT · 29 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-16 FG · 4-8 3PTDavi Remagen · UTM
STAT · 29 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-14 FG · 1-3 3PTVladimir Khryapa · UTM
STAT · 22 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-6 FG · 1-2 3PTKaan Onat · UTM
STAT · 24 MIN · 9 PTS · 3-7 FG · 0-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UT Martin vs IU Indy pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is IUIN +2.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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