Cleveland State Vikings at Missouri Tigers
Final · SECN+
50–111Last shot · Dre Jones makes 10-foot jumper
At lock: projected CLE 68.87–91.27 MIZ
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 1:46 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3604885684
- Winner: Missouri (98%)
- Spread: CLE +25.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Under 160.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)39
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CLE 68.87–91.27 MIZ · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMIZ +0.0 off · CLE +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MIZ
- Market priorBlended 86% toward MIZ -26.5 / total 160.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 18 | 32 | 50 |
| MIZ | 56 | 55 | 111 |
Scoring plays
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 3:0844–101
Trent Burns makes 4-foot dunk (Aaron Rowe assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4044–104
Kennard Davis Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 2:0245–104
Micah Bays makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0246–104
Micah Bays makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4446–105
Trent Burns makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:4446–106
Trent Burns makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1446–109
Jordan Crawford makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trent Burns assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:1247–109
Rayvon Griffith makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1248–109
Rayvon Griffith makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2048–110
Trent Burns makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2048–111
Trent Burns makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:0350–111
Dre Jones makes 10-foot jumper
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CLE | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Jones F · #12 | 28 | 13 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
 C. Stinson Jr. G · #9 | 22 | 5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 A. Bruskotter G · #5 | 17 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 J. Lowery G · #0 | 28 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 R. Griffith G · #1 | 29 | 13 | 5-17 | 0-5 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
 G. Headings F · #33 | 18 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 B. McCruter F · #15 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 B. White C · #7 | 14 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
 O. Uagboe G · #11 | 20 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 X. McKinney G · #4 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 O. Bronston Jr. G · #2 | 7 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 M. Bays G · #3 | 9 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 D. Vorst C · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Foster G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 50 | 19-58 | 2-16 | 10-17 | 29 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 13 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CLE | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 19-58 | 42-69 |
| FG% | 33 | 61 |
| 3PT | 2-16 | 14-31 |
| 3P% | 13 | 45 |
| FT | 10-17 | 13-18 |
| FT% | 59 | 72 |
| REB | 29 | 43 |
| OR | 12 | 12 |
| DR | 17 | 31 |
| AST | 11 | 23 |
| STL | 4 | 11 |
| BLK | 4 | 10 |
| TO | 14 | 4 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 4 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 6 | 23 |
| FBPs | 6 | 24 |
| PIP | 30 | 46 |
| PF | 13 | 18 |
| LL | 0 | 63 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock CLE 68.87–91.27 MIZ · MIZ by 22.4 pts vs CLE +25.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissD. Jones · CLE
28 MIN · 13 PTST. Bryant · MIZ
20 MIN · 15 PTSJason Crowe Jr. · MIZ
STAT · 30 MIN · 23 PTS · 9-16 FG · 4-7 3PTKennard Davis Jr. · MIZ
STAT · 27 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-9 FG · 4-6 3PTRayvon Griffith · CLE
STAT · 29 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-17 FG · 0-5 3PTJamier Jones · MIZ
STAT · 17 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-7 FG · 3-5 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Cleveland St vs Missouri pick result · Nov 3, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CLE +25.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day