Bellarmine Knights at Vanderbilt Commodores
Final · SECN+
47–93Last shot · Tommy Clark misses 27-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected BELL 64.05–92.47 VAN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3689067969
- Winner: Vanderbilt (99%)
- Spread: BELL +32.5 covers (64%)
- Total: Under 158.5 (61%)
- Score error (both teams)18
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BELL 64.05–92.47 VAN · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseVAN +0.0 off · BELL +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to VAN
- Market priorBlended 86% toward VAN -36.5 / total 158.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BELL | 17 | 30 | 47 |
| VAN | 44 | 49 | 93 |
Scoring plays
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:5037–84
Jacob Wassler makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyler Doyle assists)
- FT2nd Half 4:4537–85
Ant Brown Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:4537–86
Ant Brown Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:3238–86
Julius Gizzi makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 4:3239–86
Julius Gizzi makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:0142–86
Jacob Wassler makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyler Doyle assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:3142–88
Ethan Mgbako makes driving layup (Ant Brown Jr. assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:1943–88
Grant Whitaker makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:1944–88
Grant Whitaker makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:0244–91
Mavrick Hawkins makes 29-foot three point jumper (Ant Brown Jr. assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:4747–91
Tommy Clark makes 31-foot three point jumper (Julius Gizzi assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4847–93
Ethan Mgbako makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BELL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Wassler F · #44 | 20 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 S. Donald F · #23 | 26 | 5 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
 T. Doyle G · #2 | 26 | 6 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 G. Whitaker G · #10 | 25 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
 K. Goodin G · #8 | 26 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
 B. Klopfenstein F · #33 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 M. Meagher G · #24 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Gizzi G · #11 | 20 | 7 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 D. Surratt G · #5 | 18 | 9 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 M. Darrell G · #25 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 T. Clark G · #0 | 9 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 G. Neal G · #4 | 19 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
 E. Harrell F · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Tornatta F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. McAfee F · #1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Swan G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 47 | 17-46 | 5-21 | 8-13 | 20 | 8 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BELL | VAN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 17-46 | 33-55 |
| FG% | 37 | 60 |
| 3PT | 5-21 | 7-19 |
| 3P% | 24 | 37 |
| FT | 8-13 | 20-25 |
| FT% | 62 | 80 |
| REB | 20 | 38 |
| OR | 6 | 11 |
| DR | 14 | 27 |
| AST | 8 | 19 |
| STL | 5 | 12 |
| BLK | 1 | 3 |
| TO | 23 | 14 |
| TTO | 5 | 0 |
| ToTO | 23 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 5 | 37 |
| FBPs | 0 | 21 |
| PIP | 20 | 52 |
| PF | 18 | 19 |
| LL | 0 | 50 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 95 |
At lock BELL 64.05–92.47 VAN · VAN by 28.4 pts vs BELL +32.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
MissJ. Wassler · BELL
20 MIN · 8 PTSC. Bing · VAN
22 MIN · 11 PTSTyler Tanner · VAN
STAT · 28 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-10 FG · 1-3 3PTBerke Buyuktuncel · VAN
STAT · 21 MIN · 13 PTS · 5-5 FG · 1-1 3PTAce Glass · VAN
STAT · 24 MIN · 12 PTS · 4-9 FG · 2-5 3PTDemarcus Surratt · BELL
STAT · 18 MIN · 9 PTS · 4-4 FG · 1-2 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Bellarmine vs Vanderbilt pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is BELL +32.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day