UMBC Retrievers at Marist Red Foxes
Final · ESPN+
80–88Last shot · Aidan Able misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
At lock: projected UMBC 66.03–70.88 MRST
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 2:17 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1814150142
- Winner: Marist (66%)
- Spread: MRST -4.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 138.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)31
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UMBC 66.03–70.88 MRST · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMRST +11.8 off · UMBC +21.7 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MRST
- RecordMRST 1-1 · UMBC 0-2
- Market priorBlended 71% toward MRST -4.5 / total 135.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC | 33 | 47 | 80 |
| MRST | 38 | 50 | 88 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 0:4273–81
Dywane Chess makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:3576–81
Aidan Able makes 25-foot three point jumper (Riley Jacobs assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:3176–82
Jadin Collins-Roberts makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2377–82
Devin Ceaser makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT2nd Half 0:2378–82
Devin Ceaser makes free throw 3 of 3
- FT2nd Half 0:2278–83
Dywane Chess makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:2278–84
Dywane Chess makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1678–85
Jadin Collins-Roberts makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1678–86
Jadin Collins-Roberts makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:1180–86
Devin Ceaser makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:1080–87
Jadin Collins-Roberts makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1080–88
Jadin Collins-Roberts makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UMBC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 R. Jacobs F · #23 | 31 | 23 | 7-10 | 1-2 | 8-9 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
 A. Able G · #4 | 30 | 10 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 F. Burton G · #1 | 33 | 13 | 4-11 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
 J. Ristic G · #12 | 30 | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
 D. Ceaser G · #13 | 33 | 21 | 7-15 | 1-2 | 6-7 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 |
 A. Barry F · #21 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 S. Huan F · #10 | 7 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JP Ndong F · #2 | 9 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 J. Reynolds G · #11 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 C. Varela G · #5 | 17 | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 E. Morton G · #3 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Ciunys F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Ferry G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Slating G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Cross G · #95 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 80 | 26-51 | 4-11 | 24-29 | 32 | 10 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UMBC | MRST | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-51 | 27-62 |
| FG% | 51 | 44 |
| 3PT | 4-11 | 11-30 |
| 3P% | 36 | 37 |
| FT | 24-29 | 23-32 |
| FT% | 83 | 72 |
| REB | 32 | 36 |
| OR | 5 | 13 |
| DR | 27 | 23 |
| AST | 10 | 18 |
| STL | 8 | 8 |
| BLK | 2 | 0 |
| TO | 19 | 15 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 19 | 15 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| PTS OFF TO | 15 | 22 |
| FBPs | 8 | 5 |
| PIP | 40 | 22 |
| PF | 23 | 21 |
| LL | 8 | 16 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 25 | 70 |
At lock UMBC 66.03–70.88 MRST · 1.6 pts under 138.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissR. Jacobs · UMBC
31 MIN · 23 PTSE. Onyia · MRST
12 MIN · 0-0 FGDevin Ceaser · UMBC
STAT · 33 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-15 FG · 1-2 3PTDywane Chess · MRST
STAT · 31 MIN · 20 PTS · 6-14 FG · 4-8 3PTBrady MacAdams · MRST
STAT · 15 MIN · 17 PTS · 4-9 FG · 3-7 3PTJadin Collins-Roberts · MRST
STAT · 30 MIN · 16 PTS · 2-5 FG · 0-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
UMBC vs Marist pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 138.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day