North Dakota State Bison at San Francisco Dons
Final · ESPN+
70–79Last shot · Andrew Hilman makes layup
At lock: projected NDSU 69.68–76.74 SF
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 6:09 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3977477255
- Winner: San Francisco (73%)
- Spread: NDSU +8.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 146.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
NDSU 69.68–76.74 SF · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSF +15.5 off · NDSU +17.2 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to SF
- RecordSF 2-0 · NDSU 1-2
- Market priorBlended 71% toward SF -8.5 / total 145.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDSU | 31 | 39 | 70 |
| SF | 45 | 34 | 79 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 1:0964–70
Riley Massey makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0965–70
Riley Massey makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0765–71
Yoav Vitlem makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0765–72
Yoav Vitlem makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5667–72
Rob Diaz III makes layup
- FT2nd Half 0:5567–73
Gustav Knudsen makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3267–74
Andrew Hilman makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:3267–75
Andrew Hilman makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:1870–75
Riley Massey makes 23-foot three point jumper
- FT2nd Half 0:1470–76
Andrew Hilman makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1470–77
Andrew Hilman makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0070–79
Andrew Hilman makes layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NDSU | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 K. Tate F · #3 | 17 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
 A. Nagy F · #44 | 24 | 6 | 2-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 R. Diaz III G · #0 | 31 | 18 | 8-16 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
 A. Stefonowicz G · #5 | 28 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
 M. Bell Jr. G · #1 | 17 | 5 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 K. Poom F · #23 | 16 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 A. Danforth G · #13 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 M. Iversen G · #4 | 19 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 R. Massey G · #2 | 24 | 17 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 6-7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
 J. Harper G · #14 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 C. Smith G · #7 | 20 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
 C. Stack F · #35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 O. Junker F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Schoenfeld F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Paz Vazquez G · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Robison G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 70 | 26-70 | 10-37 | 8-13 | 36 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 18 | 18 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NDSU | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-70 | 24-49 |
| FG% | 37 | 49 |
| 3PT | 10-37 | 12-25 |
| 3P% | 27 | 48 |
| FT | 8-13 | 19-28 |
| FT% | 62 | 68 |
| REB | 36 | 38 |
| OR | 18 | 12 |
| DR | 18 | 26 |
| AST | 10 | 14 |
| STL | 11 | 5 |
| BLK | 1 | 6 |
| TO | 12 | 15 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 12 | 15 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 24 | 14 |
| FBPs | 2 | 23 |
| PIP | 32 | 22 |
| PF | 20 | 15 |
| LL | 0 | 15 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 96 |
At lock NDSU 69.68–76.74 SF · SF by 7.1 pts vs NDSU +8.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissK. Tate · NDSU
17 MIN · 6 PTSG. Knudsen · SF
25 MIN · 9 PTSBen Oosterbaan · SF
STAT · 34 MIN · 22 PTS · 9-13 FG · 4-7 3PTAndrew Hilman · SF
STAT · 24 MIN · 22 PTS · 5-8 FG · 2-2 3PTRob Diaz III · NDSU
STAT · 31 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-16 FG · 2-9 3PTRiley Massey · NDSU
STAT · 24 MIN · 17 PTS · 4-8 FG · 3-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
N Dakota St vs San Francisco pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NDSU +8.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day