Loyola Maryland Greyhounds at Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers
Final · ESPN+
57–68Last shot · Carter Berg-McLean makes driving layup
At lock: projected L-MD 72.81–76.96 MSM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 4:55 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 491078338
- Winner: Mount St Marys (65%)
- Spread: L-MD +5.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 150.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)25
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
L-MD 72.81–76.96 MSM · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseMSM +4.1 off · L-MD +23.1 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to MSM
- RecordMSM 1-1 · L-MD 0-2
- Market priorBlended 85% toward MSM -5.5 / total 148.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| L-MD | 22 | 35 | 57 |
| MSM | 29 | 39 | 68 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 2:0652–58
Carter Berg-McLean makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0452–59
Wilguens Jr. Exacte makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:0452–60
Wilguens Jr. Exacte makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:1852–63
Anthony Arrington Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Redd Thompson Jr. assists)
- FT2nd Half 1:0253–63
Robbie Long III makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:0153–64
Julien Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5454–64
Leo Ricketts makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5354–65
Julien Smith makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5354–66
Julien Smith makes free throw 2 of 2
- DUNKSHOT2nd Half 0:1554–68
Abdou Khadre Kebe makes 4-foot alley oop dunk (Wilguens Jr. Exacte assists)
- FT2nd Half 0:1555–68
Carter Berg-McLean makes free throw 1 of 1
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:0757–68
Carter Berg-McLean makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| L-MD | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 S. Emenalo F · #13 | 31 | 13 | 4-14 | 2-8 | 3-4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
 E. Barnes F · #17 | 14 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
 D. Harrison F · #0 | 14 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
 C. Berg-McLean G · #5 | 36 | 9 | 2-8 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
 L. Ricketts G · #33 | 27 | 15 | 5-11 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
 G. Howard F · #24 | 24 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 A. Amzil F · #14 | 16 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
 S. Bieg G · #4 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 R. Long III G · #3 | 21 | 4 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 M. Ortega G · #1 | 12 | 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
 T. Cicero Jr. G · #2 | 5 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
 A. Huguet F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 S. Springer F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 G. Kodi F · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Hagedorn F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Walker G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 57 | 18-61 | 9-31 | 12-20 | 42 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 30 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| L-MD | MSM | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 18-61 | 24-59 |
| FG% | 30 | 41 |
| 3PT | 9-31 | 8-27 |
| 3P% | 29 | 30 |
| FT | 12-20 | 12-21 |
| FT% | 60 | 57 |
| REB | 42 | 43 |
| OR | 12 | 10 |
| DR | 30 | 33 |
| AST | 10 | 14 |
| STL | 5 | 5 |
| BLK | 3 | 5 |
| TO | 10 | 10 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 10 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 9 | 13 |
| FBPs | 2 | 5 |
| PIP | 14 | 26 |
| PF | 17 | 22 |
| LL | 2 | 14 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 13 | 81 |
At lock L-MD 72.81–76.96 MSM · MSM by 4.1 pts vs L-MD +5.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissS. Emenalo · L-MD
31 MIN · 13 PTSY. Diop · MSM
25 MIN · 0-1 FGRedd Thompson Jr. · MSM
STAT · 35 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-16 FG · 2-6 3PTLeo Ricketts · L-MD
STAT · 27 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-11 FG · 3-5 3PTAbdou Khadre Kebe · MSM
STAT · 30 MIN · 15 PTS · 7-12 FG · 1-6 3PTWilguens Jr. Exacte · MSM
STAT · 26 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-8 FG · 1-1 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Loyola MD vs Mount St Marys pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is L-MD +5.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day