Fairfield Stags at Wisconsin Badgers
Final · BTN
42–89Last shot · Nasir Rodriguez misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected FAIR 64.37–86.40 WIS
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 10, 2:19 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 384344961
- Winner: Wisconsin (98%)
- Spread: FAIR +25.5 covers (61%)
- Total: Under 150.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)25
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FAIR 64.37–86.40 WIS · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseWIS +1.4 off · FAIR +5.4 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to WIS
- RecordWIS 3-0 · FAIR 1-2
- Market priorBlended 84% toward WIS -25.5 / total 150.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FAIR | 20 | 22 | 42 |
| WIS | 52 | 37 | 89 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 4:1234–80
Jack Janicki makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT2nd Half 4:1234–81
Jack Janicki makes free throw 3 of 3
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:4936–81
Jaden Brown makes 12-foot floating jump shot
- TIPSHOT2nd Half 3:2636–83
Hayden Jones makes 0-foot tip in layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:5438–83
Jaden Brown makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:2438–85
Jackson Ball makes 5-foot floating jump shot
- FT2nd Half 2:0939–85
Jaden Brown makes free throw 2 of 3
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:3739–87
Hayden Jones makes layup
- FT2nd Half 1:2240–87
Nasir Rodriguez makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:0442–87
Marko Radunovic makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:4642–88
Hayden Jones makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4642–89
Hayden Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| FAIR | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P. Smith F · #33 | 13 | 6 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
J J. Hatchett G · #3 | 16 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
 D. Wucherpfennig G · #44 | 25 | 5 | 2-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
 H. Rawlins G · #4 | 21 | 6 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 T. Williams G · #8 | 11 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
B B. Jones F · #25 | 12 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
 M. Radunovic F · #88 | 6 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 I. Munkadi F · #15 | 9 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
O O. Sacko F · #23 | 5 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Q. Martin F · #12 | 16 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
J J. Brown G · #11 | 19 | 10 | 4-11 | 0-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
C C. Edelen G · #0 | 14 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 N. Rodriguez G · #5 | 14 | 3 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
 E. Mejia G · #1 | 19 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
 T. Ostop G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Ganton G · #24 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 N. Best G · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 42 | 14-72 | 1-21 | 13-22 | 42 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FAIR | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 14-72 | 29-56 |
| FG% | 19 | 52 |
| 3PT | 1-21 | 11-26 |
| 3P% | 5 | 42 |
| FT | 13-22 | 20-27 |
| FT% | 59 | 74 |
| REB | 42 | 52 |
| OR | 23 | 12 |
| DR | 19 | 40 |
| AST | 2 | 14 |
| STL | 9 | 8 |
| BLK | 3 | 3 |
| TO | 13 | 16 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 13 | 16 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 13 | 13 |
| FBPs | 4 | 24 |
| PIP | 16 | 34 |
| PF | 22 | 16 |
| LL | 4 | 48 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 3 | 95 |
At lock FAIR 64.37–86.40 WIS · WIS by 22.0 pts vs FAIR +25.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissP. Smith · FAIR
13 MIN · 6 PTSV. Onuetu · WIS
14 MIN · 0-1 FGAustin Rapp · WIS
STAT · 21 MIN · 15 PTS · 6-10 FG · 3-7 3PTOwen Foxwell · WIS
STAT · 22 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-7 FG · 2-2 3PTBraeden Carrington · WIS
STAT · 21 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-8 FG · 3-7 3PTEian Elmer · WIS
STAT · 20 MIN · 12 PTS · 3-6 FG · 1-3 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Fairfield vs Wisconsin pick result · Nov 10, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is FAIR +25.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day