Denver Pioneers at Wisconsin Badgers
Final · B1G+
68–75Last shot · Logan Threatt makes free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected DEN 68.35–89.03 WIS
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 2, 2:47 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 417900199
- Winner: Wisconsin (97%)
- Spread: DEN +23.5 covers (59%)
- Total: Under 159.5 (62%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
DEN 68.35–89.03 WIS · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseWIS +0.0 off · DEN +0.0 off, shrunk 0%
- Home field+3.4 pts to WIS
- Market priorBlended 86% toward WIS -25.5 / total 162.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 30 | 38 | 68 |
| WIS | 44 | 31 | 75 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:3258–68
Shaun Wysocki makes layup (Carson Johnson assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:1858–71
Braeden Carrington makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
- FT2nd Half 3:2559–71
Charlie Dimmock makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:2560–71
Charlie Dimmock makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 2:4662–71
Carson Johnson makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1464–71
Charlie Dimmock makes 11-foot jumper (Carson Johnson assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 1:5464–73
Eian Elmer makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 1:1464–74
Eian Elmer makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1464–75
Eian Elmer makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:5166–75
Carson Johnson makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:1867–75
Logan Threatt makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:1868–75
Logan Threatt makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| DEN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 O. Wickström Stümer F · #8 | 21 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 C. Dimmock F · #0 | 18 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
 S. Wysocki F · #1 | 27 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
 C. Johnson G · #20 | 36 | 27 | 9-17 | 2-7 | 7-7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 K. Martin G · #2 | 29 | 9 | 3-10 | 0-2 | 3-6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 |
 H. Bates F · #4 | 14 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
 J. Rogers F · #3 | 20 | 9 | 4-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
 S. Mahoney F · #12 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 B. Mbengue C · #21 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 CJ Hyland G · #11 | 6 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
 L. Threatt G · #10 | 18 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 W. Kirsch G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Cady G · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Nelson G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 68 | 23-52 | 4-19 | 18-21 | 32 | 7 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DEN | WIS | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 23-52 | 31-67 |
| FG% | 44 | 46 |
| 3PT | 4-19 | 6-26 |
| 3P% | 21 | 23 |
| FT | 18-21 | 7-18 |
| FT% | 86 | 39 |
| REB | 32 | 36 |
| OR | 7 | 14 |
| DR | 25 | 22 |
| AST | 7 | 20 |
| STL | 9 | 8 |
| BLK | 3 | 3 |
| TO | 16 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 16 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 10 | 9 |
| FBPs | 7 | 13 |
| PIP | 18 | 46 |
| PF | 19 | 16 |
| LL | 0 | 17 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 94 |
At lock DEN 68.35–89.03 WIS · WIS by 20.7 pts vs DEN +23.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitO. Wickström Stümer · DEN
21 MIN · 2 PTSV. Onuetu · WIS
11 MIN · 6 PTSCarson Johnson · DEN
STAT · 36 MIN · 27 PTS · 9-17 FG · 2-7 3PTEian Elmer · WIS
STAT · 26 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-13 FG · 1-3 3PTBraeden Carrington · WIS
STAT · 31 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-9 FG · 3-7 3PTOwen Foxwell · WIS
STAT · 34 MIN · 14 PTS · 6-12 FG · 1-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Denver vs Wisconsin pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is DEN +23.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day