Kansas City Roos at Jacksonville Dolphins
Final · ESPN+
61–79Last shot · Cameron Love misses layup
At lock: projected KC 72.49–76.59 JAX
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 9, 9:01 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 349803985
- Winner: Jacksonville (64%)
- Spread: JAX -3.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 147.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
KC 72.49–76.59 JAX · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseJAX +1.8 off · KC +17.2 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to JAX
- RecordJAX 2-1 · KC 1-2
- Market priorBlended 70% toward JAX -3.5 / total 146.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 20 | 41 | 61 |
| JAX | 36 | 43 | 79 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 5:4554–71
Sebastian Hartmann makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 5:4554–72
Nehemiah Turner makes free throw 1 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:1454–74
Nehemiah Turner makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:2057–74
Lincoln Goodwin makes 27-foot three point jumper (Assane Diop assists)
- FT2nd Half 3:4358–74
Cameron Love makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3758–75
Evan Sterck makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 3:3758–76
Evan Sterck makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 3:1960–76
Jibbe Sicking makes layup (Matija Samar assists)
- FT2nd Half 2:1460–77
Jamie Phillips Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:3760–78
Evan Roberts makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:3760–79
Evan Roberts makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:5161–79
Raivo Butirins makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| KC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A A. Bakhtadze F · #10 | 20 | 5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 S. Hartmann F · #2 | 28 | 8 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
 A. Diop F · #9 | 17 | 7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
 J. Smith G · #4 | 29 | 9 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 6-6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 C. Daughtery Jr. G · #8 | 18 | 3 | 0-6 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
R R. Butirins F · #21 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
M M. Bruce-McCrommon F · #12 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J J. Sicking F · #6 | 20 | 11 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 3-6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
L L. Goodwin G · #20 | 23 | 8 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
J J. Kori G · #7 | 4 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
C C. Love G · #5 | 11 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
D DJ Jackson Jr. G · #1 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
E E. Moskowitz G · #0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 M. Samar G · #26 | 21 | 6 | 1-9 | 0-4 | 4-5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
D D. Jencius F · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 61 | 14-47 | 6-23 | 27-37 | 28 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| KC | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 14-47 | 24-56 |
| FG% | 30 | 43 |
| 3PT | 6-23 | 9-23 |
| 3P% | 26 | 39 |
| FT | 27-37 | 22-32 |
| FT% | 73 | 69 |
| REB | 28 | 34 |
| OR | 8 | 8 |
| DR | 20 | 26 |
| AST | 10 | 9 |
| STL | 3 | 6 |
| BLK | 2 | 2 |
| TO | 9 | 6 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 9 | 6 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 5 | 11 |
| FBPs | 4 | 9 |
| PIP | 16 | 22 |
| PF | 20 | 25 |
| LL | 2 | 24 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 1 | 97 |
At lock KC 72.49–76.59 JAX · 1.6 pts over 147.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
MissA. Bakhtadze · KC
20 MIN · 5 PTSJ. Morrow · JAX
24 MIN · 2 PTSHayden Wood · JAX
STAT · 34 MIN · 26 PTS · 7-15 FG · 3-7 3PTJamie Phillips Jr. · JAX
STAT · 29 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-12 FG · 2-5 3PTJibbe Sicking · KC
STAT · 20 MIN · 11 PTS · 3-4 FG · 2-3 3PTNehemiah Turner · JAX
STAT · 18 MIN · 10 PTS · 4-8 FG · 2-5 FT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Kansas City vs Jacksonville pick result · Nov 9, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 147.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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