Green Bay Phoenix at St. Thomas Tommies
Final · Summit League Network
76–67Last shot · Carter Bjerke misses 28-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected GB 71.21–78.41 STMN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 8:50 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2296449074
- Winner: St Thomas (74%)
- Spread: GB +8.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 149.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)17
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
GB 71.21–78.41 STMN · Medium confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseSTMN +20.1 off · GB +15.6 off, shrunk 20%
- Home field+3.4 pts to STMN
- RecordSTMN 1-2 · GB 2-1
- Market priorBlended 70% toward STMN -7.5 / total 149.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 33 | 43 | 76 |
| STMN | 33 | 34 | 67 |
Scoring plays
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 5:2169–58
Ne'quan Brown makes driving layup (Orlando Lovejoy assists)
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:5869–60
Tim Franks makes layup (Kyle Counts assists)
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 4:1469–63
Hayden Tibbits makes 24-foot three pointer
- FT2nd Half 2:5469–64
Carter Bjerke makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:5469–65
Carter Bjerke makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 2:3570–65
Ahmere Carson makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 2:1772–65
Marcus Hall makes 5-foot floating jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5872–67
Jeremy Lorenz makes 4-foot floating jump shot
- FT2nd Half 1:1073–67
Ahmere Carson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 1:1074–67
Ahmere Carson makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4375–67
Marcus Hall makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 0:4376–67
Marcus Hall makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| GB | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 M. Hall F · #13 | 37 | 12 | 3-10 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
 M. Cicic C · #20 | 13 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
N N. Brown G · #7 | 32 | 17 | 6-17 | 2-7 | 3-3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
A A. Carson G · #2 | 21 | 15 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
 O. Lovejoy G · #0 | 37 | 12 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 |
T T. Colnaric F · #36 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
 I. Sutherland F · #24 | 23 | 8 | 3-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
 A. Hadaway F · #6 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
C C. Payia G · #23 | 10 | 8 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
S S. Erhart II G · #1 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
 L. Thomas G · #22 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 K. Van Kauwenberg G · #3 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 M. Wrecke G · #4 | 8 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
H H. Gruetzmacher F · #31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
C C. Burnett G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Fitzgerald G · #21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 76 | 26-60 | 9-30 | 15-18 | 36 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 23 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GB | STMN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 26-60 | 18-46 |
| FG% | 43 | 39 |
| 3PT | 9-30 | 6-21 |
| 3P% | 30 | 29 |
| FT | 15-18 | 25-29 |
| FT% | 83 | 86 |
| REB | 36 | 31 |
| OR | 11 | 6 |
| DR | 25 | 25 |
| AST | 16 | 9 |
| STL | 8 | 3 |
| BLK | 5 | 3 |
| TO | 9 | 14 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 9 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 22 | 8 |
| FBPs | 12 | 8 |
| PIP | 30 | 24 |
| PF | 23 | 16 |
| LL | 14 | 8 |
| LC | 11 | 11 |
| LPCT | 55 | 37 |
At lock GB 71.21–78.41 STMN · STMN by 7.2 pts vs GB +8.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitM. Hall · GB
37 MIN · 12 PTSJ. Lorenz · STMN
29 MIN · 20 PTSNe'quan Brown · GB
STAT · 32 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-17 FG · 2-7 3PTTim Franks · STMN
STAT · 32 MIN · 16 PTS · 3-11 FG · 2-7 3PTAhmere Carson · GB
STAT · 21 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-11 FG · 2-5 3PTHayden Tibbits · STMN
STAT · 35 MIN · 13 PTS · 4-8 FG · 2-4 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Green Bay vs St Thomas pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is GB +8.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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