SE Louisiana Lions at Little Rock Trojans
Final · ESPN+
83–79Last shot · Gio Sanford misses free throw 2 of 2
At lock: projected SELA 68.33–77.52 LR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 12:42 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 64290272
- Winner: Little Rock (79%)
- Spread: SELA +10.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 145.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)15
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SELA 68.33–77.52 LR · Low confidence
Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Attack / defenseLR +16.5 off · SELA +3.7 off, shrunk 11%
- Home field+3.4 pts to LR
- RecordLR 0-2 · SELA 1-1
- Market priorBlended 71% toward LR -9.5 / total 144.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SELA | 46 | 37 | 83 |
| LR | 39 | 40 | 79 |
Scoring plays
- FT2nd Half 6:2172–69
Jah'Likai King makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT2nd Half 6:2172–70
Jah'Likai King makes free throw 2 of 2
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 6:1372–72
Bradyn Hubbard makes layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 5:4674–72
Tyler Rolison makes 12-foot floating jump shot
- FT2nd Half 5:4675–72
Tyler Rolison makes free throw 1 of 1
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 4:5677–72
Tyler Rolison makes driving layup
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 3:2177–74
Jah'Likai King makes 18-foot pullup jump shot
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 1:5680–74
Tyler Rolison makes 26-foot three pointer
- JUMPSHOT2nd Half 0:5080–77
Jalen Lyn makes 24-foot three point jumper
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:4680–79
Taj Walters makes layup
- LAYUPSHOT2nd Half 0:2882–79
Tyler Rolison makes driving layup
- FT2nd Half 0:0183–79
Gio Sanford makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SELA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Shoemaker F · #32 | 22 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
 Y. Ndjonga F · #23 | 23 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 L. Suber G · #0 | 21 | 6 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 T. Rolison G · #3 | 30 | 16 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 4-6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
 Q. Allen G · #8 | 23 | 6 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
 A. Sims II F · #2 | 29 | 18 | 7-8 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
 J. Furman G · #1 | 26 | 21 | 6-11 | 5-9 | 4-5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
 G. Sanford G · #9 | 14 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
 T. Bailey G · #4 | 12 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 JJ Massaquoi F · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Akoue C · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 H. Muhammad II G · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 P. Jimenez G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 T. Perry G · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Al-Naziat G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Nyam G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 83 | 27-51 | 13-25 | 16-22 | 27 | 19 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SELA | LR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 27-51 | 26-58 |
| FG% | 53 | 45 |
| 3PT | 13-25 | 7-20 |
| 3P% | 52 | 35 |
| FT | 16-22 | 20-24 |
| FT% | 73 | 83 |
| REB | 27 | 34 |
| OR | 8 | 15 |
| DR | 19 | 19 |
| AST | 19 | 13 |
| STL | 6 | 7 |
| BLK | 4 | 3 |
| TO | 14 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 14 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| PTS OFF TO | 14 | 26 |
| FBPs | 2 | 19 |
| PIP | 24 | 34 |
| PF | 19 | 19 |
| LL | 7 | 6 |
| LC | 9 | 9 |
| LPCT | 52 | 38 |
At lock SELA 68.33–77.52 LR · LR by 9.2 pts vs SELA +10.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitG. Shoemaker · SELA
22 MIN · 8 PTSB. Hubbard · LR
23 MIN · 16 PTSJackson Furman · SELA
STAT · 26 MIN · 21 PTS · 6-11 FG · 5-9 3PTAshley Sims II · SELA
STAT · 29 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-8 FG · 3-3 3PTTyler Rolison · SELA
STAT · 30 MIN · 16 PTS · 5-11 FG · 2-3 3PTJah'Likai King · LR
STAT · 37 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-14 FG · 1-6 3PT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
SE Louisiana vs Little Rock pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SELA +10.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NCAAB picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day